It's confusing, but January saw thousands of people laid off at tech companies who were simultaneously hiring others. At Google and Microsoft, "net" thousands of people went out and as a result (or in spite of it?) both companies rose to record highs. Might make sense, but feels weird.
Leaving aside Tesla, where growth is stagnant, virtually all major publicly traded companies are rewarded for optimism about the growth of the global economy. A Gaza humanitarian tragedy is taking place in the Middle East, but it seems to be taking place in a parallel universe outside of economic reality. When Houthis -who knew this club a month ago- attack a few boats it has a greater impact on the stock market, than great human suffering. Again, perhaps logical, but it is still distressing.
Tech has been in a bit of the doldrums the last few years, after smartphone-induced growth slowed and it was a matter of wait and see to figure out which new trend would kick start a new hype cycle. That new hype has clearly been found in AI. The question is why did the two exponents of blockchain, Bitcoin and Ethereum, fall in January when there is so much optimism about the economy and the new tech wave?
The answer is simple: blockchain is usually slightly ahead of the "traditional" tech economy, and Bitcoin and Ethereum already posted huge increases in 2023. Compared to a year ago, Bitcoin rose 84% and Ethereum 45%. The adoption of the first Bitcoin ETFs thus became an old-fashioned "buy the rumour, sell the news" scenario that even led to fears of another violent price correction for crypto.
Billions have been invested in new applications, many of which will come to market as early as this year. We are often going to talk about multimodal AI (roughly speaking AI that knows and recognizes more forms than just text) and in blockchain, the hype projects have mostly been washed away and serious applications are becoming available. Will Apple run into regulatory and Chinese market problems and NVIDIA become one of the three most valuable companies in the world? Everything points to 2024 being a fascinating year.