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Silicon Valley divided over choice between founders or managers

Because I was traveling this weekend, I don't have a good overview of the most important tech news. Therefore, I devote this newsletter to the only topic of conversation last week in tech circles: founders or managers - who are better?

The Uber driver's gold-rimmed sunglasses are a symbol of where I am this week. The answer is in the last photo, at the bottom.

In Silicon Valley last week most conversations were dominated by the discussions about "Founder Mode", following a blog post by Paul Graham, founder of the world's most successful startup incubator Y Combinator. Graham argues that startup founders shouldn't listen to investors who often insist on appointing experienced CEOs and managers, which Graham says often has disastrous consequences.

Founders or managers?

Operating in "founder mode," according to Graham, means adhering to a founder's mindset and management style. It's about bypassing rigid organizational structures and fostering close collaboration between departments. In contrast, startups in "manager mode" attract competent, experienced managers to lead teams with minimal interference from the CEO.

"The way managers are taught to run companies seems to be like modular design in the sense that you treat subtrees of the org chart as black boxes. You tell your direct reports what to do, and it's up to them to figure out how. But you don't get involved in the details of what they do. That would be micromanaging them, which is bad.
"
Graham wrote.

Airbnb almost successfully managed into the ground

He was inspired to write his blog post by a recent speech by Airbnb co-founder Brian Chesky at Y Combinator. In it, Chesky highlighted the pitfalls of conventional wisdom when scaling businesses, often advising to hire good people and give them autonomy. When he followed this advice at Airbnb, it led to disappointing results.

In his own words, inspired by Steve Jobs, Chesky developed a new approach, which now seems to be working, given Airbnb's strong financial performance - although residents of the inner cities of Barcelona and Amsterdam will think otherwise, awash in a wave of rolling suitcases and higher rents due to Airbn's "success".

Many founders in the audience shared similar experiences as Chesky and realized that the usual advice harmed rather than helped them. Chesky pointed out that founders are also often advised to run their companies as professional managers upon strong growth, which often proves ineffective.

Apple and Microsoft successful in manager mode

According to Chesky and Paul Graham, founders possess unique skills that managers without entrepreneurial backgrounds often lack. By suppressing these instincts, founders can actually harm their companies.

Risa Mish, management professor at Cornell University, contrasted that in Observer that it was precisely Steve Jobs who was succeeded with great success by the experienced manager Tim Cook. Microsoft has also performed many times better under Satya Nadella than anyone ever expected.

"But it could be as simple as the difference between a team trying to create new things and a company focused on growing existing products and revenue streams," Mish said.

Examples abound in both camps

Mish has apparently forgotten that Steve Jobs was fired from Apple in the 1980s by CEO John Sculley, who came from Pepsi Cola and ironically was recruited by Jobs himself.

The only innovation Sculley introduced at Apple was the legendary flop Newton, because he was unable to match the undeniably huge market potential of the mobile device (later proven correct by the iPhone) with the right timing, the most important skill for an innovative CEO. The technology was far from ready for a device like the Newton; high-speed mobile Internet was lacking and the small processors were still too weak.

Before I digress further: contrasted with the success of executives Tim Cook at Apple and Satya Nadella at Microsoft is a literally and figuratively (numerically and symbolically) equally great success in the person of Nvidia founder Jensen Huang, who has been CEO of the chipmaker he himself founded for more than three decades.

Nor will Salesforce shareholders shed any tears that founder Marc Benioff has been in charge there for more than a quarter century and, according to The Information, is even working on a comeback, as if that was necessary since Benioff was never out of it. In short: whether it's successful founders or successful managers, there are plenty of examples in both camps. Time for a quantitative comparison!

The data shows: founders perform better

Fortunately, the dilemma has since been studied quantitatively and it turns out that Paul Graham's thesis is correct: founder mode is often superior when it comes to value creation, according to an analysis of PitchBook data.

Pitchbook is clear: founders are better than managers.

Pitchbook concludes:

"In each of the past five years, VC-backed founder-led companies grew in value significantly faster than non-founder-led companies. This year, the relative rate of value creation for founder-CEOs was 22.4%, compared to 4.7% for non-founder-CEOs.
In the chosen methodology, the relative rate figure reflects the percentage of value increase between funding rounds, expressed on an annual basis. Among companies that raised funding this year, median value growth was $3.6 million higher among founder-CEOs.
According to Graham, founder-CEOs of high-growth companies are especially "more agile" than professional CEOs. That detail-oriented approach can lead to higher growth through product improvement, or by better motivating front-line employees."

Vulnerable businesses need entrepreneurs

Vulnerable companies need entrepreneurs. In my opinion, which is based on experience and observation but not supported by quantitative research, companies that regardless of their age rely primarily on one product or one revenue source should preferably have a founder at the helm.

Take Google, which is currently under pressure due to the rise of OpenAI with ChatGPT, while their revenue comes largely from ads, especially through the search engine.

As soon as the search engine generates less traffic, revenue will drop, and things will get very tough for Google. CEO Sundar Pichai is clearly a competent manager, but the next few years will show how good an entrepreneur he is.

We need only think back to the temporary successes of Nokia and Blackberry to see what happens when companies that lean on innovation are led by executives unable to adapt their products when they are attacked head-on.

Zuckerberg's flexibility

An excellent example of a relatively young founder who has mastered the craft is Mark Zuckerberg. When Instagram appeared to be a threat to Facebook, he quickly bought it for a billion dollars. An amount many frowned upon, but insiders knew it was a bargain. WhatsApp was about 20 times as expensive, but still a good deal.

When Snapchat posed a major threat to Instagram with Stories, Zuckerberg simply had Instagram copy Snapchat's full functionality, without ego. This saved Instagram. He is currently trying something similar in response to TikTok.

I am convinced that a classical manager would never have bought Instagram and Whatsapp or let Instagram respond so quickly to competition from Snapchat and TikTok. That Zuckerberg has now spent tens of billions on obscure Metaverse adventures is, by comparison, a rounding error.

Conclusion from thirty years as an entrepreneur and investor

Interestingly, many successful entrepreneurs say they have been mentored for years by a small group of experienced advisors who enjoy their trust. For example, ex-Intuit CEO Bill Campbell, about whom the excellent book Trillion Dollar Coach was written, was a famous advisor to Steve Jobs and the founders of Google, among others.

In Silicon Valley, investors and former entrepreneurs Reid Hoffman, Peter Thiel and Marc Andreessen are frequently mentioned names as examples of valued advisors. It is precisely in the combination of entrepreneurial experience and investment experience that they prove to be of unique value.

This topic is close to my heart because, after almost ten years as an employee during my school and college days, I have been an entrepreneur for 15 years and an investor and advisor for 15 years since.

Coachable crazies

My conclusion is that coachable entrepreneurs have the greatest chance of success.

One of the advantages of having been an employee first is that I learned mostly how I didn't want to deal with people once I became an employer. During my time as a young entrepreneur at Planet Internet, however, I have been immensely supported by valuable advice, both from entrepreneurs and managers.

In retrospect, I only realized how lucky I was that entrepreneurs like Eckart Wintzen (BSO) and Maarten van den Biggelaar (Quote Media) took the time for me, as did members of the Board of Directors of the Telegraaf and Ben Verwaayen of KPN.

It didn't escape me that Quote, Telegraph and KPN were shareholders, and that perspective obviously always came into play. But that doesn't diminish the quality of their opinions.

Later, as an advisor at the same Quote Media and at dance company ID&T, I saw how talents such as Jort Kelder and Duncan Stutterheim might appear to the outside world to be stubborn, but in practice, at crucial moments, they listened very carefully to advice - and then, as they should, made their own decisions.

It became more difficult in constellations where, on the contrary, many different winds were blowing, as I experienced with the OV Chipkaart: a consortium of public transport companies that competed among themselves, which tendered to a consortium of companies that in turn competed among themselves. 

At the Silicon Valley startup Jaunt, I experienced something similar. This virtual reality pioneer had a mix of tech and media people within both the team and the investors, a true fusion of Silicon Valley and Hollywood.

Making VR cameras as well as VR productions, having offices in Palo Alto and Santa Monica and owned by shareholders that ranged from the traditional profit-hungry Silicon Valley vc funds, to Disney and Sky; on top of that also a mix of American, European and Chinese investors. You end up with a sort of mash-up of fried rice and sauerkraut, or a pizza with ginger and kale. Separately excellent, but the combination doesn't work. It lacks focus and a unified mindset, which a good founder as CEO does have.

That's a long run-up to my conclusion: the best CEOs are founders who are maniacal in their vision, but coachable in their execution; call it coachable geeks. And then preferably coachable by both experienced founders *and* managers.

The sunglasses of the Uber driver already gave it away: this week I am in Dubai. 

Thanks for your interest and see you next week!

Categories
AI invest technology

Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia invest in OpenAI despite $158 loss: per second

Summer is over so starting next weekend, this newsletter will again be weekly instead of monthly. With apologies for the late mailing, herewith the most notable recent topics covered in this newsletter:

  • OpenAI loses $158 per second yet is worth $100 billion
  • Nvidia breaks revenue records but is very silent on customer success
  • Shares of AI-driven companies rose sharply in August
  • Energy consumption of AI threatens climate goals of Big Tech companies, appear to try to change the rules of the game 
  • Telegram and other social media are obviously being targeted by governments
  • podcast of Taylor Swift's boyfriend, and his brother, to Amazon for $100 million
  • Midjourney will make hardware

OpenAI loses $158 per second but is worth $100 billion

According to The Information, OpenAI, maker of ChatGPT, is fast heading for a $5 billion loss this year, or: $158 per second. This is a negligible run-up loss in the eyes of CEO Sam Altman and his supporters, as he appears to be successfully raising new funding at a valuation of $100 billion. That compares to the value Facebook had at the time of its IPO in 2012, but Zuckerberg did make $1 billion in profit!

Interestingly, the three most valuable companies in the world, Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia, apparently consider participating in this investment round. Thrive Capital as lead investor is doing $1 billion and Nvidia $100 million. That's a hefty sum, but how far does that take OpenAI?

How well is Nvidia doing?

At an annualized loss of $5 billion, OpenAI can go on for a scant week with that $100 million from Nvidia, which itself posted second-quarter revenue of $30 billion with a net profit of $16.6 billion. So it only takes the chipmaker thirteen hours (!) to earn the $100 million it invested in OpenAI. A nice tip for keeping a big customer happy.

Is Nvidia doing well or badly? Opinions vary.

Nvidia's performance is being interpreted in different ways. People from outside the tech industry, such as financial analysts, do not seem to understand that the manufacturing problems Nvidia is experiencing in producing the new Blackwell chip are temporary.

A company's performance is determined by a combination of revenue, growth and profit. Nvidia's sales will be fine for the next few years, due to a lack of competition and the huge demand from the Big Tech companies that develop AI applications or provide platforms for AI developers: Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Oracle and Salesforce are just a few of the customers who cannot drive their AI efforts without Nvidia. So aside from revenue, Nvidia's profit margin is in good shape for now.

A bigger problem for Nvidia is the growing doubt that all those customers can make healthy profit margins on their AI investments. So far, those hoped-for profits are failing to materialize, and that does represent a long-term concern at Nvidia. Top executive Jensen Huang is very quiet when asked about his customers' return on their AI spending at Nvidia. The question becomes how long for Huang silence is golden.

August was a fine month for AI companies.

AI Spotlight 9 rose sharply in August

While NVDA shares rose over 11% last month, it was also a fine month for many other companies benefiting from the rise of AI. Super Micro took a huge hit after it failed to produce its annual results on time.

My totally subjective AI Spotlight 9 has been updated and I have added Arm (chips), Arista (networking) and Marvell (chips). After all, Nvidia, Google and Microsoft are already in the "regular" Spotlight 9 of leading tech investments.

The S&P 500 closed very close to its all time high on Friday August 30th. Shares rose in the last 10 minutes of trading on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 up 1% and all major sectors on the rise. But the outlook for September is less bright.

Since 1950, the S&P 500 has generated an average loss of 0.7% in September and finished higher only 43% of the time, making September the worst month for stocks based on average return and positivity percentage. The past four September months have also been remarkably weak, with respective declines of 4.9%, 9.3%, 4.8% and 3.9% for the index. It will be interesting to see how tech stocks and especially AI companies do in the coming weeks.

AI versus climate

Due to the huge growth in data center energy consumption in pumping AI applications like ChatGPT and Google Gemini, tech giants risk missing their climate goals, usually ambitiously defined as "net zero," or carbon-free operations. There is great concern that smart techbros like Bezos are indirectly manipulating the definition of zero emissions

The Financial Times is particularly concerned about the influence of Amazon and Jeff Bezos's $10 billion Bezos Earth Fund on the carbon credits market, especially through its funding of the Science Based Targets Initiative (SBTi). The SBTi sets standards for corporate climate goals, but experts worry about potential conflicts of interest as large technology companies, including Amazon, want more flexibility in using carbon credits to achieve net zero targets.

This influence could change the way climate standards are set, potentially favoring cheaper carbon credits over actual emission reductions. Compare it to a penalty taker in soccer who often misses, upon which he decides to make the opponent's goal thirty feet wider and higher. And as a goalkeeper a garden gnome.

Telegram and X crackdown

Once upon a time, the credo of telecom operators was "we have zero responsibility about our customers' messages". For Internet service providers, I unfortunately know from experience, this was not such a simple matter. I wrote about that earlier. For social media, it is even clearer that they should intervene whenever possible if their networks are being used for criminal activity. The Washington Post explains it clearly:

"Global Internet regulators are no longer playing around. Two days after France sued Telegram CEO Pavel Durov on several charges, Brazil on Friday ordered the suspension of Elon Musk's X after it ignored an order to appoint a legal representative in the country. While the details differ in important ways, both cases involve democratic governments losing patience with cyberlibertarian tech magnates who perhaps turned their noses up at authorities a little too often.

The crackdown, which comes months after the passage of a law in the United States that could lead to the banning of TikTok, heralds the end of an era. Not the era of social media, which is still going strong. But the era when tech giants had free rein to shape the online world - and enjoyed a presumption of immunity from real-world consequences.

Although unfettered Internet companies have long clashed with authoritarian regimes - Google in China, Facebook in Russia or pre-Musk Twitter in Turkey - Western governments did not, until recently, consider social media and the vision of free speech they promoted to be fundamentally at odds with democracy. Politicians and regulators recognized that there were bad things on the Internet, condemned it and sought ways to limit it. But banning entire social networks or arresting their executives was simply something liberal democracies did not do. Now, for better or worse, they do."

The arrest of Durov in France is akin to firing a gun at a gnat. But until the full charges are revealed and it is clear what crimes Durov is accused of, it also remains difficult to vouch for his innocence. If Telegram is actually being used for pernicious activities and could well have intervened, appropriate punishment is warranted.

Friend of Taylow Swift and his brother podcast for $100 million 

The Kelce brothers make a nice podcast, and the fact that the youngest brother is Taylor Swift's bearded arm candy also won't have deterred them from striking a $100 million deal with Amazon, which is trying to bring in more ad revenue. Actors Jason Bateman, Will Arnett and Sean Hayes struck a similar deal with satellite radio station SiriusXM early this year for their podcast, also for $100 million.

But Alexandra Cooper's podcast is the clear winner with the very well chosen name for her podcast Call Her Daddy, Cooper is reportedly getting $125 million from SiriusXM over three years.

According to Midjourney, I am more handsome than my reflection and I was typing this newsletter laughing on a beach. Then it must be true.

Battle over AI photos enters new era

While Elon Musk's picture maker Grok seems to know no limitations, spitting out everything from famous singers in lingerie to Kamala Harris with a firearm, the launch of the web version of Midjourney has been much less in the news.

That's a shame, because Midjourney is a fantastic tool that was previously only available via the cumbersome Discord. Fascinatingly, Midjourney also plans to get into hardware. Since hardware head (his real title) Ahmad Abbas previously worked on the Apple Vision Pro, some think it will be "smart glasses" but Midjourney CEO David Holz is far too smart for that. Everyone knows that if you want to make money in the smart glasses business, you might as well get in the shower, light up a cigar and burn thousand-dollar bills with it.

The question is, and all suggestions are welcome: what hardware is Midjourney going to make?

Thanks for the interest and see you next weekend, then hopefully just again on Sunday!

Categories
AI invest crypto technology

AI forces Microsoft and Google to revise climate goals and stock market in Great Rotation?

Switching to a monthly frequency of this newsletter over the summer in anticipation of a newsless summer did not prove to be the smartest decision, so in last month's avalanche of tech news, I try to make sense of the two most important developments. First, the massive energy consumption of AI forcing Microsoft and Google to rethink their climate goals. And fears of recession seem to be ushering in a "Great Rotation" in stock markets, with investors fleeing tech funds into more conservative stocks.

Greenpeace and Amnesty against Microsoft?

It seemed like agreed-upon work: on July 2, as many as eighty nonprofit organizations including Greenpeace and Amnesty International declared that the use of carbon offsets (carbon credits) by companies, actually undermines rather than supports climate goals. The objection is that companies are buying virtually worthless carbon credits and not reducing their emissions.

Companies in sectors ranging from technology to mining, on the other hand, argue that carbon offsets are actually crucial to reducing corporate emissions and moving toward net zero emissions. How can the parties be so opposed when they claim to be pursuing the same goal?

Need for high-quality and reliable carbon removal assets

At its core, this is a confusion of concepts. Opposition to useless carbon credits, issued for, say, forest areas that are never threatened, is justified. But companies such as Microsoft, on the contrary, are voluntarily focusing, without legal requirements, on carbon credits based on actual removal of carbon from the atmosphere. And that removal is crucial: annual global greenhouse gas emissions are about 50 gigatons, but as much as 2,200 gigatons must be removed to stay below one and a half degrees of warming. Simply turning off the tap will not have sufficient effect.

Reducing all emissions to zero will save 50 Gigatons - but there are still 2,200 Gigatons to be removed from the atmosphere.

"It's about creating a market for high-quality, reliable and sustainable carbon removal assets," Melanie Nakagawa, chief sustainability officer at Microsoft, said in a recent interview. "Think about sequestering carbon in the soil through accelerated weathering of rocks or stones that absorb carbon and are turned into concrete. Or Mombak, a large forestry project in Brazil." Another example of carbon sequestration is 280 Earth, nota bene once spawned by Google.

AI threatens climate goals, but there is hope

On July 3, the day after the 80 organizations shared their objection to bad carbon credits, the very club magazine of business, the Wall Street Journal, reported that Google's total emissions had increased 13.5% from 2022 to 2023.

In fact, since 2019, emissions have increased by nearly half, Google reported deep on page 31 of its sustainability report. Competitor Microsoft's total emissions increased 29% between 2020 and 2023.

Google stopped carbon offsets and focuses on removal
source: Bloomberg

Google had just promised to reduce emissions by 50% from 2019 levels, and Microsoft has been saying for years that it will be carbon-negative by 2030.

To cost-effectively combat climate change, it is crucial to find the most cost-effective methods to reduce greenhouse gases (GHG). A fascinating study published in Nature estimates the cost per ton of CO2 for two reforestation methods: natural regeneration and plantations. By creating new maps of costs and carbon storage, it shows that natural regeneration and plantations are cheapest in about half of the suitable areas for reforestation.

Together, at less than $50 per ton of CO2, these methods can reduce 44% more emissions than natural regeneration or plantations alone. This is far more effective than previous estimates by UN research organization IPCC showed. In short: there is hope for effective, affordable carbon removal.

OpenAI loses $5 billion a year

The AI craze is largely responsible for the increasing energy consumption and associated emissions of tech giants. Large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT are powered by energy-intensive data centers.

Training, maintaining and using LLMs consumes processor power and thus energy. It therefore came as no surprise that OpenAI is on track to lose $5 billion a year. The question of how all the investments in AI will ever be recouped is becoming more pressing. The gap between investment and market value is now $600 billion.

The quality of LLMs is also being questioned in increasingly wider circles, raising the question of whether other forms of AI do not offer better solutions. Professor Deepak Pathak thinks that not understanding physical environments structurally limits the quality of LLMs.

An LLM can read thousands of reports on gravity without understanding what happens when you drop a ball from your hand. That's why Pathak is trying to develop AI with "sensory common sense.

Spotlight 9: carnage in the stock market

Last Friday, August 2, the stock market experienced its worst day since 2022. This after, to say the least, a turbulent month in the stock market for the technology sector. Initially stock prices were still rising on expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, but weak economic data, including a drop in manufacturing activity and rising unemployment, caused a stock market sell-off.

The only gainer in the month of July was Bitcoin. Apple also remained steady.

Chip stocks were hit particularly hard, market leaders such as Nvidia and AMD fell sharply but the once proud Intel was hit the hardest: falling sales led to mass layoffs and a 32% drop in Intel shares!

Crowdstrike lost nearly half of its stock market value after the global outage, but the entire AI sector took substantial hits.

The sell-off was not limited to U.S. markets, as investors worldwide were gripped by fears of a global recession. In recent years, larger exchange traded funds such as Apple, Microsoft and Amazon, have far outperformed smaller ones. Still, reports of a "Great Rotation" of large tech funds into lower-market and undervalued "value stocks" seem as exaggerated as the conspiracy theory of a Great Replacement.  

Link Tips

Elon Musk gives update on second human with Neuralink implant

Politically, Musk has been on the lookout for what is beyond the far right for a while, but as soon as he talks about technological advances, he remains fascinating. By the way, Musk himself always appears to play podcasts at twice the normal speed. Nicest quote from his latest appearance on Lex Fridman's podcast: "If your vocabulary is larger, your effective bitrate is higher."

PayPal mafia's love for Donald Trump explained

Another interesting podcast, More or Less by the couples Morin and Lessin, tried to explain why people like Elon Musk, Peter Thiel and David Sacks are such ardent Trump supporters. A disconnect between intelligence and empathy can be observed.

How crypto affects U.S. presidential election

Investors Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz are donating to Trump, to the annoyance of The Verge, but LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman and other top investors are rallying behind Kamala Harris. Crypto regulations are proving to be a divisive issue. I expect Harris to propose a different crypto policy before the election than President Biden implemented with the SEC during his presidency.

XRP had an amazing July, but Solana also held its own while the rest of the crypto world processed corrections.

How do you hire a CEO?

Top investor Vinod Khosla, who was at odds with Elon Musk just a few weeks ago over his support for Donald Trump, explains how to hire a CEO. Khosla is certainly no supporter of Trump and shared in his familiar clear terms what to look for when choosing a CEO. What's nice is that the way he shares it differs on Medium and on X.

Small, delicate drone

The HoverAir X1 drone is the first interesting drone not made by DJI in years. Small problem is that the drone will land on its own, including over water. I'm sure there will be a solution to that soon.

Apple Vision Pro on sale in Europe and Asia

Totally overlooked by the media and by consumers: the Apple Vision Pro is now on sale in most countries but no one cares. Too bad the beautiful device is alarmingly expensive and too little good content remains available for it. When will Apple dare to lower its margin and create a market by, for example, offering substantial discounts on the Vision Pro, say to buyers of a Mac or an iPhone?

Dr. Sachdev lectured and we listened especially attentively. The entire webinar is here.

Five, no yet six, tips for successful Web3 projects

Dr. Nisheta Sachdev and Gert-Jan Lasterie discussed the success and failure factors when introducing new projects in the Web3 world. Together with the webinar participants, I asked the questions. It is especially interesting to see which tactics for quickly building a real community are also applicable to other products and services.

Nice finale for hot days

Even one glass of alcohol a day can lead to serious consequences for your health. But there is also good news: "It is healthier to be social without the need for alcohol, but the benefits of spending time with others are still likely to outweigh the risk of consuming one to two units of alcohol." In other words: raise a glass together, otherwise don't.

Cheers, and see you next month!

Categories
investing crypto NFTs

Record deal Microsoft in carbon credits; invitation Tracer private round

It was an exciting week for Microsoft. On Tuesday, it was overtaken by Nvidia as the world's most valuable company, but after Nvidia shares fell Thursday, Microsoft closed the week as the number one again. It will prove to be a temporary position, as Nvidia's advance is unstoppable for now.

More interestingly, Microsoft signed a record-breaking deal this week in which it committed to purchasing eight million carbon removal credits, representing the largest ever carbon dioxide removal transaction.

In my not so humble opinion, it is the start of a race in a new billion-dollar market; the CO2 removal market. I hope to be able to contribute to this myself through the Tracer project, which could be an important tool in the fight against global warming. I would like to invite you to make a contribution as well!

An almost entirely self-painted survey of the various sources of carbon removal credits.

It is about CO2 removal, not just avoidance or reduction

The record purchase was a notable action by Microsoft because the reduction of one ton of CO2 emissions, commonly described as a carbon credit, is used by airlines, among others, for the worst kind of greenwashing. The lack of transparency and control in the market led to projects that often fail to deliver the promised environmental benefits and gave carbon credits a bad reputation.

The interesting thing is that Microsoft has not only set a goal of being climate neutral by 2030, but actually carbon negative. This means Microsoft will reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by more than half, remove the rest and then aim to remove the equivalent of its historical emissions by 2050.

In doing so, Microsoft recognizes that carbon dioxide emissions are so high that emissions reductions alone are no longer sufficient to achieve "only" a degree and a half of warming, the goal of the Paris climate accord COP21; this will require actual removal of CO2.

Tech giants embrace carbon removal credits

Microsoft is not the only tech giant focused on carbon removal credits, because along with Google, Meta and Salesforce, companies that rarely play together nicely, it recently announced the formation of the Symbiosis Coalition, a signal that the world's largest companies are willing to invest in high-quality carbon removal credits.

A trillion-dollar market: countless solutions for CO2 removal, but the key is the duration of CO2 removal, expressed in years.

The tech giants' move toward carbon removal credits obviously also has an economic consideration. The economic potential of the carbon removal sector is enormous. McKinsey estimates the size of this sector by 2050 to be as much as $1.2 trillion, or $1,200 billion. This is based on increasingly stringent government taxes on carbon emissions and rapidly improving technology.

But 2050 is still a long way off. It is therefore relevant that Morgan Stanley estimates that the market for carbon credits, most of which will be based on CO2 removal, will reach $100 billion as early as six years from now, in 2030. Now I always distrust forecasts with nice round numbers, but in this case, due to global warming, there is an undeniable need for companies to invest heavily in CO2 removal. After all, without a livable planet, it's hard to make money.

What is unique about Tracer?

Since Hans Tobé and I founded Blue City Solutions in 2016, after our visit to COP21 in Paris, we have been looking for projects that can accelerate CO2 removal in a cost-effective way; that is, without subsidies or donations. With Tracer, we think we have found an extraordinary solution that, without, false modesty, benefits the world.

Tracer is the answer to the question: how do you scale the carbon credit market from small, opaque and without liquidity, to huge, transparent and liquid? This is extraordinary, because so far the solutions have been either liquid or transparent. Either efficient, or reliable.

The Tracer ecosystem: two smart contracts, Tracer for governance and Carrot for tokenization and qualification of the carbon removal credit

Tracer's solution is based on a smart contract, a blockchain application, by Chief Technology Officer Philippe Tarbouriech. For enthusiasts, the "secret sauce" is the combination of a fungible and a non-fungible token in the same smart contract making it possible to offer buyers a single portfolio with multiple projects as the source of the carbon removal credits.

Compare it to a "basket" of stocks among fund investors. Buying carbon removal credits that way from different sources was not possible until now, which made this market hell for companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Apple etc who buy large amounts of credits. How can they ensure quality of carbon removal credits, especially if they buy from various projects worldwide where the removal at each project varies per year? This is so far unfeasible and complicates the growth of the market.

More details about Tracer's solution to this are in the tech white paper. The entire outline, from a summary of a few pages to the entire white paper, is in the, yes, Tracer Knowledge Center.

But rather than summarize all of Tracer's documentation, I think it would be more useful to share my own analysis.

Market and solution are clear

For nearly two decades, I have tried to assess every innovation through Guy Kawasaki's lens , which reduces every startup to ten slides. When Philippe explained his idea of Tracer to me, the problem that Tracer solves (the poorly functioning market of carbon removal credits), the value it brings users (transactions of higher quality carbon removal credits at lower management costs) and the "underlying magic" (an open source smart contract that documents the entire life cycle of a carbon removal credit) were quickly apparent.

What always helps to spark my enthusiasm: a huge market potential with solid customers (Microsoft & Co have budgets) and a pressing problem (climate change). What I find special about Tracer is that it offers a solution to large buyers such as Microsoft and Salesforce by providing complete transparency, through an assessment model based on "persistence"; by this is meant the duration of carbon removal.

Choosing that persistence as the most important factor - because some projects provide 100-year removal and others over a thousand years - also ensures right away that large amounts of CO2 removal credits are more easily comparable and thus tradable.

Real world assets new phase in crypto, pardon me, Web3

As an old man, I have long been very skeptical about the lack of underlying value components of crypto projects. In short, there was nothing more than supply and demand.

With Bitcoin, that is precisely its strength, but with many companies that tried to profit from Bitcoin's success with obscure tokens, a smokescreen was actually erected about possible value the token would represent.

At the same time, a simple analysis did show that the biggest crypto funds outperformed the biggest tech funds by far over the past year. And the market is always right; the only question is over what period of time.

I think the nice thing about Tracer, from a business perspective, is that there is continuous influx of capital from the "real" world. Boston Consulting Group has done a fascinating study on the kind of "asset tokenization" of which the Tracer project is an example.

'Buy and burn' sounds strange, but is a modern way for the community to share in success.

Because a percentage of each carbon removal credit "tokenized" through the Carrot smart contract is used to purchase the Tracer governance token. This reduces the number of Tracer tokens in circulation and creates a deflationary effect, as is the case with Ethereum. Simply put: upward price pressure. And people both outside and inside crypto, or Web 3 as we have to say these days, are very keen on that.

Tracer is open source and decentralized

Once upon a time, Finn Linus Torvalds, with the open source operating system Linux and a group of volunteers, destroyed a billion-dollar industry of closed operating systems, making cloud computing many times cheaper. In short, without Linux, there would be no Amazon, social media or Netflix and certainly no AI.

Linux became an inspiration for other open source projects such as Ethereum, which does struggle with the image of being run too centralistically. An alternative governance structure is the Decentralized Autonomous Organization (DAO), which Tracer uses.

I won't go through the legal details of this, but at its core it comes down to the owners of Tracer tokens making the most important decisions. There is no corporate ownership of the software.

American investment firm Andreessen Horowitz, known for investments in Facebook, Twitter and Airbnb, among others, has written a legal framework for DAOs, but especially the Europeans will recognize many elements of the old-fashioned association structure.

In my opinion, this decentralized approach is a basic part of blockchain technology, which is still used too rarely.

Tracer DAO: one token, one vote.

The difference between tokens and shares

As a former investor in startups, I have experienced firsthand how long it usually takes even the successful startups to get some return to shareholders. Waiting five to 10 years is not unusual.

In Web3, I see the advantage of being able to start for relatively little money and quickly see if a product catches on, so that money doesn't disappear into a bottomless pit for years. So you try something, you adjust something where necessary, but then it's also: either stop, or a success.

In doing so, as with Tracer, there is often the possibility of getting at least the initial deposit out within a few months of launch. Tracer is funded through a phased token sale, with prices rising at each stage. This model is designed to reward early buyers as the project becomes less risky.

Tracer private round: 0.75 cents USD per token, half the price in the upcoming public sale.

The advantage for early buyers is that they could trade ten percent of their tokens immediately after the public sale, while their remaining tokens are subject to a one-year vesting period. Such an approach shows long horizons and professionalism in Web3.

Dedicated team

This long-term vision is also evident in the tokens that the team itself bought early on. Almost twenty percent of the tokens are reserved for the team, with a so-called cliff of one year applying. This means that those tokens are only released and can be traded after a year, with this also applying to only a third of these tokens; the vesting period for the team tokens is thirty-six months.

Important: team and advisors have tokens that can only be traded after a year and then only partially (33%)

Without wanting to portray them as superheroes who really deserve a cape, it is relevant to point out my personal involvement. I have no formal position at Tracer, but I have been instrumental in putting together the international team as an advisor.

For example, I introduced CTO Philippe Tarbouriech to Gert-Jan Lasterie, the Chief Business Officer (CBO) of Tracer, whom I knew from the days when I was a small shareholder in his company Flabber, which he sold to American media company Vice. Gert-Jan once gave me the excellent book he wrote about on cryptocurrencies and played an important role in accelerating my learning curve about crypto and blockchain.  

I once introduced CFO Hans Tobé, who managed the international offices of the Dutch Center for Trade Promotion (NCH) for many years, with energy and sustainability expert Andrew Barbeau, who became our U.S. partner and strategist.

Notable names also include Hubert Shio-Hsien Tai, once one of the first hundred employees at eBay, who was later involved in the IPOs of two Chinese Internet giants as CTO and COO; not to mention Dr. Alberto Pace, Tracer's scientific advisor, who in daily life works at CERN as head of data management. I always joke that it must be nice for Alberto that at Tracer, he finally gets a chance to deal with a serious challenge.

All people with long and outstanding track records, each in their own field, and not types who will soon be offering a so called 'Masterclass' on "how to get rich quick by dropshipping crap". More key collaborations, team members and advisors will be announced in the coming months.

Join us and ... and what?

Nothing I say or write is advice, it is just my opinion. I do not own Bitcoin myself. Many people start drooling while staring at Bitcoin's 113% rise, Solana' s nearly 700% rise or even memecoin Pepe' s over 20,000% rise, all in the last year, but my advice is: only do this with money you can afford to lose, and for peace of mind, assume you've lost it too.

But if Tracer becomes successful, you will probably get back many times more than you put into it. In addition, I personally think it is important that Tracer is a governance token, allowing you to vote on the important decisions with your tokens. The fight against global warming is important enough to think seriously about and contribute seriously to. If you are interested in Tracer, click here.

And any comments, questions or other feedback I would love to hear!

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AI invest technology

Billions hunt on Wall Street due to AI gold rush

It was the week of AI on Wall Street. After Apple presented its AI plans on Monday, things remained quiet for a while, but after a day's respite, the stock market hit a complete snag on Wednesday: Apple briefly overtook Microsoft as the world's most valuable company, while just last week it had lost the second spot to Nvidia. What is wrong with these investors? Why the absurd price swings of hundreds of billions?

The market value of Apple (orange), Microsoft (blue) and Nvidia (green) last week in trillion dollars. Source: ChatGPT 4.o

Billions of dollars

As of June 14, Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia have all passed the milestone of a $3 trillion market value, making them an exclusive "trillion-dollar" club. Due to enthusiasm among investors about the upcoming introduction of AI applications and ChatGPT in the iPhone, Apple briefly regained the title of the world's most valuable company with a market capitalization of $3.283 trillion, just slightly higher than Microsoft's at $3.282 trillion. 

Meanwhile, Nvidia's stock price also rose steadily, driven by investor excitement over Nvidia's 10-for-1 stock split. Nvidia's market capitalization experienced a meteoric rise, from $2 trillion to $3 trillion in a record-breaking 96 days, faster than Microsoft (649 days) and Apple (718 days). 

Nvidia's dominance in AI chips and strong earnings growth have fueled share price gains, with shares up more than 132% this year and 193% in the past year. But on Friday, Apple's share price fell slightly, Microsoft rose slightly and so Microsoft ended the stock market week as it began: as the world's most valuable company.

Everyone was buying iPods, not AAPL 

Let's face it: if the so-called investment gurus understood anything about technology, they would have been buying Nvidia shares en masse years ago. But just as there was no one 21 years ago who, instead of buying an iPod at that price, $300, bought shares of Apple (which would be worth $137, 000 today), there is virtually no professional investor who has been in Nvidia for more than, say, five years.

Professional fund investors are as big amateurs as you and me. Why are Apple ($3.26 trillion), Microsoft ($3.29 trillion ) and Nvidia ($3.24 trillion) now worth almost as much? Ask any analyst or investor and they'll say in chorus: because of AI. That's like an artist manager saying, "Doesn't matter if I'm manager of Taylor Swift or Country Wilma, they're both singers.

The market does not seem to understand that these are totally different companies with different approaches to revenue, costs and possibly profits from applications of AI. But their perspective is totally different.

Apart from all the AI violence in the stock markets this week, with Nvidia still rising stronger than Apple, it is notable that Bitcoin and Ethereum fell while Bitcoin seemed to be heading for a new all-time high.

Nvidia makes pickaxes, Microsoft is mining

With AI, we can speak of pure gold rush, so let's keep that metaphor. In this gold rush, Nvidia makes the shovels and picks that every miner needs. Amazon, Meta, X, Tesla, Oracle, go down the list of tech giants: all, like Microsoft, use Nvidia's shovels and picks.

There is no alternative that delivers the same performance per dollar invested, which is why Nvidia's revenue growth and profit margins are already legendary. The question is how long Nvidia can maintain this position, but at least for the next few years.

Microsoft is the biggest miner, with worldwide data centers full of Nvidia stuff. At Microsoft, unlike Nvidia, the question is whether those billion-dollar investments will lead to sufficient margin. The first noises are already being heard that Microsoft's customers are not at all achieving the intended improvement in returns based on Microsoft's AI applications.

This will obviously lead to price erosion and lower sales and undermine investor confidence in Microsoft's AI plans because the costs are astronomical. These are not investments of billions, but tens of billions, and they will start to gnaw away at the profit margin. 

OpenAI is goldsmith, Apple the jewelry maker

OpenAI sits just a layer above Microsoft: it uses Microsoft's data centers and cloud services to forge gold, demanding maximum power from Nvidia chips. Demand for OpenAI's technology, particularly its flagship ChatGPT, has been huge. Meanwhile, OpenAI is heading for annual sales of nearly $3.5 billion.

That's why shareholder Vinod Khosla remains unabatedly optimistic. No wonder, he stepped in at a valuation under a billion and has already seen his investment increase hundredfold in value. Then I would also smile affably at the criticism of OpenAI.

OpenAI, led by Sam Altman, likes to leak revenue figures; but we hear nothing about its burn rate, its losses. This is no wonder, because in fact OpenAI pays heavily to two suppliers: Microsoft and Nvidia. Both seek maximum profit, and so OpenAI burns billions a year. The billions it invests in OpenAI, it largely gets paid back by services provided.

No, then Apple, the jewelry maker of AI mining. It builds AI applications here and there into its operating system and applications, which they don't call AI but Apple Intelligence, but the cost of these, viewed in the big picture at Apple, is virtually marginal. And the partnership with OpenAI announced big Monday costs Apple nothing at all.

What Apple does is create elegant, easy-to-use products that improve everyday life, similar to turning raw gold into fine jewelry. Apple's ambition is to offer consumer products and services that seamlessly integrate AI to improve our daily lives. The only question is: Will those AI ambitions from Apple work this time?

Apple Intelligence is Siri 2.0?

Investor and former journalist MG Siegler rightly points to all of Apple's previous attempts to get Siri working properly. It's the same pain point Marques Brownlee pointed out in conversation with Apple CEO Tim Cook.

More than two billion iPhone owners will get an update before the end of the year that will allow them to enter the AI era - provided their iPhone can handle it and, as a result, Apple may well get a huge sales boost from the iPhone 15 and the new iPhone 16, while for years renewing your iPhone was virtually unnecessary.

By the way, it's remarkable how times have changed: just last week I pointed out a podcast with legendary Wall Street Journal reporter Walt Mossberg, who terrified the entire tech elite. Nowadays, it's YouTuber and professional frisbee player Marques Brownlee for whom the red carpet is rolled out at the introduction of a new product.

Traditional journalism is struggling to make sense of Apple's introduction of AI applications. This makes sense in itself, as it is all still future music and nothing can actually be tested yet.

This is now called the Apple Power Stance: legs (too) wide, toes at ten past three-thirty.

It's just sad that the Washington Post didn't get much further than to point out the hilarious pose with which all Apple employees are portrayed these days. It has since been flatteringly christened the "Apple Power Stance," but surely the Dutch know this position better as Bassie's spreading stance on his floppy shoes.

Too much focus on LLMs and Generative AI

Those who would have followed the technology sector from some distance this week would undoubtedly get the impression that Large Language Models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT and Google Gemini, are the only and most important form of AI.

But criticism of the hundreds of billions being thrown into this branch of AI is rightly growing louder. Martin Peers of the Information has a sharp analysis:

"Despite the ubiquity of AI in news reports, one issue does not get enough attention: Are the advances that society will gain from the new technology worth the cost? By cost, I specifically mean the impact on energy supplies. The energy demands of data centers threaten to deplete energy resources, pushing back efforts to switch from carbon-emitting energy sources.

And for what? Judging by how some technology companies market their AI-driven services, it's about helping consumers design a menu for dinner, plan a vacation or find a photo on their phone. (The idea, of course, is to get consumers to spend money on new devices or AI subscriptions.)

Or it's about helping companies improve employee productivity, including cutting jobs (great!). Despite the attention these applications have attracted, AI's real promise undoubtedly lies in its potential to solve existential challenges such as deadly diseases or dangerous drivers.

Efforts to use the new technology in those directions are already underway. Google, for example, has its AlphaFold project aimed at accelerating medicines for diseases. Elon Musk is making AI the centerpiece of his efforts at Tesla to develop fully autonomous driving. Microsoft, meanwhile, is using AI to improve cybersecurity, among other things - an effort that can't come soon enough.

Data breaches at large companies - including recently at Snowflake, which affected several of its customers - have become so commonplace that they attract little attention, despite the pain they cause. No one knows the problem better than Microsoft, whose chief executive, Brad Smith, was addressed Thursday in a congressional hearing about the company's cybersecurity shortcomings.

But fighting deadly diseases, solving autonomous driving and even improving cybersecurity are not cheap or fast ventures. Yet large technology companies are spending tens of billions of dollars to develop AI, so they need a return. The danger is that the need for quick returns from consumer and business services will distort investments, neglecting more important needs.

Unlike AI startups like Anthropic and OpenAI, large companies are not run by non-profits that require them to put the interests of humanity first. Let's hope that AI's greatest advances don't turn out to be trivialities, like saving consumers a little time while playing with their phones."

"LLMs suck oxygen out of any space"

Leading thinker on technology Jennifer Zhu Scott puts it this way: "LLMs suck all the oxygen out of any room I enter. Again, a reminder:

  • LLMs will eventually become commonplace
  • LLMs are the playing field for only a handful of firms in the world
  • LLMs are not the future of truly advanced AI; instead, a more efficient architecture that requires less data/calculating power/energy and is more like biological brains is the future.
  • LLMs cause a huge carbon footprint and water consumption, and much of the output is credible nonsense, meaningless "art," deep fake and massive privacy invasion
  • Praise to those who keep their LLMs open-source

OpenAI's release of ChatGPT3 in November 2022 set in motion this mad race of LLMs and has delayed the progress of advanced AI by at least five years."

Earlier, Jen Zhu Scott said, "It's simple. We won't get to Mars by building taller buildings on Earth. Where Mars stands for general artificial intelligence, or AGI."

LLMs, as clever as some applications are, remain advanced forms of the best player in a pub quiz or the scholar who always raises his finger trying to give the answer. Only the answer does not always turn out to be correct, and the facts that the diligent scholar spits out are based solely on learned knowledge.

Fundamental technology that advances society, e.g. helps eliminate disease, will not be developed on the basis of LLMs. This puts the billion-dollar investments and trillion-dollar valuations for companies engaged in the current form of AI, LLMs, in an increasingly questionable light.

See you next week!

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AI invest technology

Nvidia has passed Apple, so what will Tim Cook do tomorrow?

So much happened in the tech world last week that I briefly discuss ten news items that stood out to me the most.

If Nvidia maintains the revenue and profit growth of recent quarters, and it looks like it will, it will be the world's most valuable company before the end of the year. 

1. Nvidia worth more than Apple

The day we all knew was coming, happened to be on Wednesday: Nvidia passed Apple in market cap and became the world's most valuable company after Microsoft. There are legitimate reasons why Apple's sales are stagnant, with limited access to the Chinese market in particular preventing Apple from realizing its full market potential.

But there is more behind Nvidia's impressive run. Because while Nvidia had been investing heavily in the development of AI technology for over a decade, with all the risks of such a relatively one-sided strategy, Apple waited no less than nine years since the iPad in 2010 and the Apple Watch in 2015, until 2024, before introducing a new category of products with the Apple Vision Pro.

Meanwhile, Apple did buy back hundreds of billions of its own shares.Investors were happy about it, but buying back its own shares remains a weakness. Apple could have bought all sorts of useful companies, but Beats. the maker of flashy headphones, was the largest acquisition in Apple history ten(!) years ago at a cost of three billion dollars. That seems like a lot, but put it in perspective: Apple makes that amount in net profit every two weeks.

Apple could have purchased content (like Disney, and then divested the channels like ESPN), content aggregators (Netflix, Spotify), a completely new product category (Tesla) or valuable sports rights (World Cup, NFL, Olympics, Premier League). But none of that. No, to satisfy shareholders Apple kept doing huge stock buybacks.

Beats only fun for Dr. Dre

Meanwhile, it hobbled along behind Spotify with Apple Music, and those ostentatious headphones from Beats by Dr. Dre pleased mostly Mr. Dre himself - and according to rumors, he's not even a real doctor. More than half of Apple's profits come from products, particularly the iPhone, that are more than a decade old and under pressure from cheaper competitors.

Apple, at its core, sells too few products to still grow sales independently, although it still managed to increase its profit margin by cleverly optimizing its sourcing, like replacing Intel as a chip supplier with Apple's own top-quality Silicon chips.

Nasdaq Composite beat Apple

Investors are punishing mediocre growth due to Apple's lack of innovation and are sprinting toward Nvidia. NVDA shares are up more than 150% in 2024 (AAPL: 6%), 214% in the past year (AAPL: 9%) and over 3,200% in the past five years (AAPL: 314%).

By comparison, during those same periods, the Nasdaq rose 14%, 29% and 126%, respectively. It was unimaginable a few years ago: the Nasdaq Composite rose more than three times as much as Apple last year .

For those looking for more background on Nvidia's growth, I previously wrote this piece.  Why the Apple Vision Pro is technically fabulous but from a business perspective merely a drop in the bucket for Apple, is described here.

TikTok bypasses U.S. export restriction

Nvidia is so unique and crucial that all other major tech companies are clutching their hats to be allowed to buy chips from it. From Microsoft to Google, Meta and Amazon: without Nvidia hardware, they can't develop AI applications, especially processor-guzzling Large Language Models (LLMs) like ChatGPT, Google Gemini or applications on Amazon Bedrock.

ByteDance, the parent company of TikTok, also needs Nvidia to develop AI and has cheekily circumvented U.S. export restrictions: it rents cloud capacity from U.S. cloud services, including those of Oracle. Officially, none of these developments seep into China, but for those who believe that, I also have a nice used car for sale from a half-blind widow, barely used.

2. Tim Cook's AI moment

Tomorrow morning, 10 a.m. California time, Tim Cook will take the stage at Apple Park in Cupertino at a pivotal moment in his career. Cook has been through a lot in his more than 12 years at the helm of Apple, but never this. He must convince the world that Apple has an AI strategy.

It has already been leaked that Apple will not launch a single AI app, but will apply AI across the breadth of its product spectrum. With one crucial difference here, compared to Microsoft: everything at Apple is opt-in, so users have the choice to turn AI applications on or off.

In contrast to the fiasco at Microsoft this week, which, with the feature Recallunsolicited searched through a user's activities, including files, photos, emails and browsing history and taking screenshots of the user's computer every few seconds to search through as well. Well that's not creepy at all.

3. Elon Musk sent Tesla's Nvidia chips to X and xAI 

"Elon prioritizing X H100 GPU cluster deployment at X versus Tesla by redirecting 12k of shipped H100 GPUs originally slated for Tesla to X instead,” an Nvidia memo from December said. “In exchange, original X orders of 12k H100 slated for Jan and June to be redirected to Tesla.” according to a leaked Nvidia memo from December.
 

By directing Nvidia to prioritize X (also known as Xitter, because formerly Twitter) over Tesla, Musk ensured that the automaker would receive more than five hundred million dollars worth of Nvidia GPUs months later. This likely caused additional delays in setting up the supercomputers Tesla says it needs to develop autonomous vehicles and robots.

A more recent email from Nvidia, from late April, said that Musk's comment at Tesla's first quarterly meeting "conflicts with bookings" and that his April post on X about ten billion dollars in AI spending also "conflicts with bookings and FY 2025 forecasts."

There is growing criticism of Musk's many hats, who, after all, is also CEO of aerospace company SpaceX, founder of brain-computer interface startup Neuralink and tunneling company The Boring Co. He additionally owns X, which he acquired in late 2022 for forty-four billion dollars, and AI startup xAI. Now Musk is even in danger of losing a fine bonus of fifty-six billion dollars.

The nice thing about Musk is that he often responds to critical reports on X, including now. His response is that Tesla had no capacity to do anything with those much-needed Nvidia H100 chips and they would have been stored in a warehouse. Hence the change of receiving address for this multi-million dollar order. Musk also says Tesla will install fifty thousand H100s at the Tesla Giga Factory in Texas to develop fully self-driving cars (FSD).

Nvidia Blackwell: no discounts

Just a quick calculation: an H100 reportedly goes out of the store for at least thirty thousand dollars, so Tesla alone buys one and a half billion dollars worth of goodies from Nvidia. Then consider that the new Nvidia chip, the Blackwell, has a higher base price and is quickly heading toward seventy thousand dollars, and it is clear that it is a matter of months, not years, before Nvidia also overtakes Microsoft in market value and becomes the world's most valuable company.

4. Wall Street Journal's Walt Mossberg on Jobs, Gates and Bezos

No one had a better network than Walt Mossberg, the legendary tech journalist who built deep relationships with the founders of the world's biggest technology companies, including Steve Jobs, Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos.

In this podcast, the now-retired Mossberg talks about how Steve Jobs dealt with moments like Tim Cook is experiencing tomorrow, what Jobs focused on (everything was about the consumer) and how much Jobs cared about the stock market (not much, at least that's how Jobs made it look).

5. Majority of companies halt acquisitions because of ESG concerns

Sustainability considerations are becoming increasingly central to the M&A process, with more than seventy percent of M&A leaders saying they have abandoned potential acquisitions because of ESG concerns. An overwhelming majority say they are willing to pay more for targets with strong ESG characteristics, according to a new survey by professional services firm Deloitte.

The question is how Environment, Social and Governance is measured. Unlike traditional accounting, there are hardly any measurable criteria for ESG. Therefore, I hereby tell you: this newsletter is hugely social and is written by an almost elderly man with a dark complexion. A newsletter cannot be much more ESG.

6. OpenAI CEO Altman's weekly scandal

Sam Alman's opaque personal investment empire makes him rich and raises questions about conflicts of interest. For although Altman has no shares in OpenAI and earns only a modest income there, out of the goodness of his heart, meanwhile he appears to be awarding all kinds of companies in which he is a private shareholder good deals with OpenAI. Especially good for his own investment portfolio.

7. OpenAI with another weekly scandal

"I’m scared. I’d be crazy not to be." So says a former OpenAI employee to Vox about the open letter from a group of AI experts from OpenAI , Google DeepMind and Anthropic
"
warning against the potentially humanity-threatening consequences of large-scale AI use.

Vox rightly states, "It can be tempting to see the new proposal as just another open letter from "doomsayers" who want a break from AI because they fear it will get out of control and wipe out all of humanity. That's not all this is. The signatories share the concerns of both the "AI ethics" camp, which is more concerned about current AI harms such as racial prejudice and disinformation, and the "AI security" camp, which is more concerned about AI as a future existential threat. These camps are sometimes played off against each other. The goal of the new proposal is to change the incentives of leading AI companies by making their operations more transparent to outsiders - and that would benefit everyone."

At the same time, we should be aware that a large group of AI experts believe that the current generation of LLMs will not lead at all to the dreaded introduction of "Artificial General Intelligence"(AGI), the AI form that will be able to perform all human functions better than us and could replace us. Investor Benedict Evans wrote an excellent piece on this last month.

8. The AI elections instead of the U.S. elections?

Until AGI makes us humans obsolete, we had better worry about how AI affects democracy. Regulators can't decide whose problem it is. A federal power struggle in the U.S. and inaction by the U.S. Congress could leave voters largely unprotected prior to the 2024 election.

The chairman of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) last month announced a plan to require politicians to disclose AI use in TV and radio ads. But the proposal is receiving unexpected opposition from a top Federal Election Commission (FEC) official, who is himself considering new rules on AI use by campaigns. But when?

The dispute - along with inaction at the FEC and Congress - would leave voters unprotected from those using AI to mislead the public or hide their political messages during the final phase of the campaign for the U.S. presidency. 

 9. BBC: audio deepfakes are worse than video deepfakes

The BBC believes that audio deepfakes are worse than video deepfakes because they are harder to spot and few people realize they are listening to a bot. This article did lead X to delete a number of accounts on which fake messages were shared.

Finfluencer of the century: Keith Gill aka Roaring Kitty

10. GameStop shares fall despite Roaring Kitty

It remains highly recommended: the movie Dumb Money about how YouTuber and Reddit user Keith Gill, better known as Roaring Kitty, propelled GameStop stock up and turned a few billionaires back into millionaires.

After disappearing from the face of the earth for a few years, Gill made his comeback on YouTube this week to over two million viewers. For GameStop stock, Gill's return was to no avail, but it is still extraordinary to see a grown man in sunglasses and a sling tell of his love for a dying retail chain while making hundreds of millions in the process.

"Blue eyes. Finance. Trust fund." Singfluencer Megan Boni.

In conclusion: in nineteen seconds to world fame

27-year-old Megan Boni asked on TikTok for remixes of her nineteen-second video that said, "I'm looking for a man in finance. Trust fund. 6' 5" ((1m96). Blue eyes. Finance. Trust fund."

Forty million views and a remix with David Guetta layer, she was offered a record deal by Universal and is invited to perform in Ibiza. The impact of going viral on TikTok is unprecedented.

See you next week!

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AI invest technology

Nvidia catches up with Google

Mostly declines in tech and crypto this week, with Nvidia and Tesla (once) on the positive side

Nvidia is about to overtake Apple and become the second most valuable company in the world as the biggest beneficiary of the surge in AI application adoption that has made the iPhone maker the biggest Wall Street company by market value for years.

The reliance of virtually all artificial-intelligence applications, such as OpenAI's ChatGPT, on Nvidia's high-performance chips has helped Nvidia's stock value nearly triple in the past year to $2.7 trillion ($2.700 billion). By comparison, Apple has a market value of 2.9 trillion.

Even Microsoft's market value is closing in on Nvidia. At the close of Wall Street on Friday, Microsoft was worth $3.09 trillion. Bizarre but true: Microsoft shares rose 12.06% this year, barely more than the S&P 500 (11.27%).  

But while Apple's P/E ratio is 30 and Microsoft's is 36, Nvidia is estimated by investors to be as much as 64 times annual earnings. Nvidia posted revenue of $26 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2025, up 18% from Q4 and up 262% from a year ago. Net profit was $14. 88 billion, up $2 billion from the previous year.

It is hard to imagine, but with even slightly sustained growth and continued P/E ratios above 60, Nvidia will have passed both Apple and Microsoft and become the world's most valuable company before the end of the year. That is the economic reflection of the global AI wave.

Recommended: webinar on AI applications

Every reason to learn more about what AI can do for your organization. For those interested in learning more about how AI and especially custom GPTs can be used to generate leads and improve services, NXTLi is hosting a webinar on Friday, June 7, at noon, for which you can register here.

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AI invest crypto technology

Nvidia baffles investors, but crypto beats AI with ease

The reason this newsletter appears later than ever is due to the fact that I spent hours calculating, because I didn't trust my math. Walked the dog and then calculated everything again. But the result remains the same: those who bought the biggest tech stocks last year did worse in terms of returns (up 34%) than those who focused on AI stocks (up 96%). Yet even AI stocks, even if you pick the best performing ones, lag far behind the big winner over the past year: crypto. And then we didn't even have to choose critically. Anyone who bought the nine largest crypto tokens at the end of May 2023 would now have earned a return of 189%.

My Spotlight 9, consisting of the largest tech stocks and two leading cryptos, Bitcoin and Ethereum: average +71% in the last year

Nvidia: technical marvel and stock market miracle

Exactly one year ago, I first wrote about Nvidia, which then posted 64% revenue growth compared to the same quarter in 2022. This week, Nvidia presented jubilant quarterly results, with a 262% increase in revenue and an eye-popping 462% increase in earnings. It seemed like a good time to compare Nvidia to other tech stocks, AI companies and the biggest cryptos.

Anyone who looks at Nvidia with an even slightly longer lens, for example, at the stock since Nvidia's IPO in early 1999, will be astonished, as I am, that the shares have risen from a split price of $0.25 to over $939, representing an unimaginable gain of 375,500%. Three hundred seventy-five thousand percent. And a half.

Many investors found Nvidia overvalued last year, with price-earnings ratios above sixty. Most tech investors also have little use for crypto. So the presumption is that very few investors followed "my" Spotlight 9. Admittedly, neither have I myself! The 10-for-1 stock split (buy 1, get 10 shares) announced this week makes NVDA stock much more accessible to retail investors.

Remove Nvidia, Bitcoin and Ethereum from my (obviously very arbitrary) Spotlight 9, the returns of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft and Tesla are only 34%. Many so-called insiders often talk about FAANG (Facebook/Meta, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google/Alphabet), but I really don't understand why Netflix is in that so-called basket of digital market leaders and Microsoft is not? It is the largest company in the world by market value and also a 49% shareholder in OpenAI.

I digress. The 34% price gain of Spotlight 9 shares without Nvidia, Bitcoin and Ethereum is obviously not at all wrong. But those who had simply bought an S&P 500 tracker also made a very fine 26.14% gain. With lower costs and less hassle.

The basket of stocks I compiled as 'AI stocks': 96.33% return in the last year

AI stocks beat Big Tech

Early this year, I tried to create a sort of counterpart to Big Tech with the AI Spotlight 9, to quickly compare their performance. Only: Nvidia and Microsoft are the biggest players in AI and thus belong in the AI Spotlight 9, alongside AMD, Broadcom, Crowdstrike, Gigabyte, Palantir, Snowflake and Super Micro.

It is striking that Super Micro has outperformed Nvidia, with a whopping 303% share price gain, by "only" 173%. Simply because Super Micro was undervalued, more unknown and now probably a touch overvalued.

Just how hot the market is for AI companies is evidenced by the fact that anyone who bought this basket of nine very subjectively chosen by me on January 1, stocks that I believe are benefiting from the AI wave, would have made a whopping 64% return. (I know that at least one reader bought the entire month's basket, but again: it's not me myself).

To put this 64% in perspective, that's a return within five months, compared to 34% in an entire year from the Big Tech stocks in my "old-fashioned" Spotlight 9: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft and Tesla.

Not AI, but crypto eats the world

For a while, that's why I felt smart, until I started on the third "basket": crypto. It turns out to be the old song. If you're playing poker and you don't know who the fool at the table is, it's you. Note:

The nine largest cryptos measured by market value in the last year: +189% and Solana as the outlier with 750% increase.

These are the performance of the nine largest cryptocurrencies, measured by market value, over the last 365 days. Granted: it helps that this measurement takes place within 48 hours of the unexpected approval of an Ethereum ETF by U.S. monetary watchdogs, after which prices rebounded.

But even without this recent tailwind, the crypto market has skyrocketed in the last year. To be honest, I didn't see it coming. But all that reading of white papers, annual reports, interviews with top people and clients notwithstanding; I should have just bought a basket of the ten biggest cryptos and made 189% price gain without thinking. Pay particular attention to Solana, which rose 750% in one year!

Biden discontinues fight against crypto

The crypto market has the wind in its sails from all sides. Interest rates are not doing anything crazy and Donald Trump has already announced that under his reign the crypto market will not be given a leg up, much to the irritation of the Democratic camp.

The problem for the Democrats is that the continued backlash against the crypto market does not generate votes, but costs votes. Politically, this is a futile strategy. So Biden is bound to cave and the sudden approval of an Ethereum ETF cannot be separated from the new political winds.

Meanwhile, though, the question remains as to which applications are actually innovative and of any use. Web3 games are still getting a lot of attention, but are still in incubation stage.

Those delving into blockchain developments often come across the term RWAs: Real World Assets, which BlackRock seems to have great interest in. Think of tokenizing, for example, bonds, real estate or, as the Tracer project aims to do: carbon removal credits.

Last Thursday, I spoke with Chief Business Officer Gert-Jan Lasterie and Chief Technology Officer Philippe Tarbouriech in an approximately 45-minute webinar, which can be seen here.

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investing crypto technology

Short news: MG Siegler loses Instagram account, what are RWAs and even in China you can go too far against staff

Losing your account on Instagram and Facebook for completely unclear reasons. It didn't just happen to anyone, but former journalist and current venture capitalist at Google Ventures MG Siegler. Only because he knows many people at the "highest level" at Meta did he get his accounts back. But what if you don't have Mark Zuckerberg's mobile number?

The rise of RWAs

RWA stands for Real World Asset. Whereas much attention was paid to virtual products and services in the Metaverse, there is now, on the contrary, great interest in "tokenizing," the tokenizing, of valuable elements from the real world.

You can also go too far with staff in China

The PR manager of one of China's largest tech companies prided herself on working so hard that she didn't know what class her youngest son was in and forgot her oldest son's birthday. It led to her resignation.

Let's not adopt the Chinese norm of 996 (working days from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m., six days a week). So my call today is this: sign up for Tracer's webinar, Justice For Joost and above all, have a very happy Mother's Day!

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AI invest technology

Spotlight 9: Elon Musk is everywhere, Tesla shares fall further

Elon Musk was sharp about AI: only Tesla had another bad week

Elon Musk single-handedly provides enough interesting material each week for a newsletter of his own, but last week was almost impossible to describe with a pen. Still, I make an attempt.

Tesla troubles

The stock fell again and is now worth almost a third less than on Jan. 1, while by comparison the S&P 500 is already up ten percent this year. Over eight hundred environmental activists protested in Berlin against the expansion of the Tesla factory and the mining of lithium in South America. It is unclear whether the environmental activists see the irony of protesting an electric car manufacturer, unless they see the electric cargo bike as the vehicle of the future.

Tesla competitor Waymo, owned by Google parent Alphabet, says the company now runs fifty thousand paid rides a week as a robot cab in Phoenix, San Francisco and Los Angeles. If this trend continues, it will be an interesting calculation when it becomes cheaper to take a robot cab, rather than one's own car.

Especially if the Chinese electric car manufacturers become as successful as they seem to be at the moment. Zeekr successfully went public in New York with an increase of as much as 35% on the first day, Nio is coming out with a low-cost competitor to the Tesla Y and BYD is supplying batteries for a new brand called Onvo.

Once Chinese automakers manage to develop good self-driving cars, public transportation worldwide will enter a whole new phase, just on the basis of lower costs than traditional public transportation. Just imagine: it means the end of the bus stop, instead a self-driving car will always stop at your door on demand and you get in the back seat nicely.

Musk sharp about AI

Musk was razor-sharp about AI at the Milken conference. He emphasized that generative AI, as we now know from OpenAI, Google Gemini and Anthropic, has very many limitations because they are always pre-trained language models. In fact, Musk said that today's LLMs should be seen as very smart participants in a pub quiz.

The funny thing about this observation by Musk is that just last week he raised billions for his own AI company, X.ai, which is now valued at eighteen billion dollars - that's two billion more than last week and four billion more than in mid-April.

Australia vs. Musk

"Elon Musk is an arrogant billionaire who thinks he is above the law," saidAustralian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. The men are embroiled in a dispute over a country's authority to demand the removal of content on social media. Musk refuses to pull images from X showing a bishop being stabbed by a 16-year-old boy. Musk wants the images removed exclusively in Australia, but believes the country has no say in the display in other countries. He may be legally right about that, but it's not tasteful.

Starlink suffers from storm

One would almost forget that Musk also owns Starlink, the company that owns sixty percent of the estimated seventy-five hundred satellites circling the earth. Due to a geomagnetic storm, the largest since 2003, Starlink is experiencing technical difficulties. Musk is not worried yet and is already looking ahead optimistically to SpaceX's next launch. Elon Musk never has a week with only good news or only bad news. He does too much for that.