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invest technology

Silicon Valley divided over choice between founders or managers

Because I was traveling this weekend, I don't have a good overview of the most important tech news. Therefore, I devote this newsletter to the only topic of conversation last week in tech circles: founders or managers - who are better?

The Uber driver's gold-rimmed sunglasses are a symbol of where I am this week. The answer is in the last photo, at the bottom.

In Silicon Valley last week most conversations were dominated by the discussions about "Founder Mode", following a blog post by Paul Graham, founder of the world's most successful startup incubator Y Combinator. Graham argues that startup founders shouldn't listen to investors who often insist on appointing experienced CEOs and managers, which Graham says often has disastrous consequences.

Founders or managers?

Operating in "founder mode," according to Graham, means adhering to a founder's mindset and management style. It's about bypassing rigid organizational structures and fostering close collaboration between departments. In contrast, startups in "manager mode" attract competent, experienced managers to lead teams with minimal interference from the CEO.

"The way managers are taught to run companies seems to be like modular design in the sense that you treat subtrees of the org chart as black boxes. You tell your direct reports what to do, and it's up to them to figure out how. But you don't get involved in the details of what they do. That would be micromanaging them, which is bad.
"
Graham wrote.

Airbnb almost successfully managed into the ground

He was inspired to write his blog post by a recent speech by Airbnb co-founder Brian Chesky at Y Combinator. In it, Chesky highlighted the pitfalls of conventional wisdom when scaling businesses, often advising to hire good people and give them autonomy. When he followed this advice at Airbnb, it led to disappointing results.

In his own words, inspired by Steve Jobs, Chesky developed a new approach, which now seems to be working, given Airbnb's strong financial performance - although residents of the inner cities of Barcelona and Amsterdam will think otherwise, awash in a wave of rolling suitcases and higher rents due to Airbn's "success".

Many founders in the audience shared similar experiences as Chesky and realized that the usual advice harmed rather than helped them. Chesky pointed out that founders are also often advised to run their companies as professional managers upon strong growth, which often proves ineffective.

Apple and Microsoft successful in manager mode

According to Chesky and Paul Graham, founders possess unique skills that managers without entrepreneurial backgrounds often lack. By suppressing these instincts, founders can actually harm their companies.

Risa Mish, management professor at Cornell University, contrasted that in Observer that it was precisely Steve Jobs who was succeeded with great success by the experienced manager Tim Cook. Microsoft has also performed many times better under Satya Nadella than anyone ever expected.

"But it could be as simple as the difference between a team trying to create new things and a company focused on growing existing products and revenue streams," Mish said.

Examples abound in both camps

Mish has apparently forgotten that Steve Jobs was fired from Apple in the 1980s by CEO John Sculley, who came from Pepsi Cola and ironically was recruited by Jobs himself.

The only innovation Sculley introduced at Apple was the legendary flop Newton, because he was unable to match the undeniably huge market potential of the mobile device (later proven correct by the iPhone) with the right timing, the most important skill for an innovative CEO. The technology was far from ready for a device like the Newton; high-speed mobile Internet was lacking and the small processors were still too weak.

Before I digress further: contrasted with the success of executives Tim Cook at Apple and Satya Nadella at Microsoft is a literally and figuratively (numerically and symbolically) equally great success in the person of Nvidia founder Jensen Huang, who has been CEO of the chipmaker he himself founded for more than three decades.

Nor will Salesforce shareholders shed any tears that founder Marc Benioff has been in charge there for more than a quarter century and, according to The Information, is even working on a comeback, as if that was necessary since Benioff was never out of it. In short: whether it's successful founders or successful managers, there are plenty of examples in both camps. Time for a quantitative comparison!

The data shows: founders perform better

Fortunately, the dilemma has since been studied quantitatively and it turns out that Paul Graham's thesis is correct: founder mode is often superior when it comes to value creation, according to an analysis of PitchBook data.

Pitchbook is clear: founders are better than managers.

Pitchbook concludes:

"In each of the past five years, VC-backed founder-led companies grew in value significantly faster than non-founder-led companies. This year, the relative rate of value creation for founder-CEOs was 22.4%, compared to 4.7% for non-founder-CEOs.
In the chosen methodology, the relative rate figure reflects the percentage of value increase between funding rounds, expressed on an annual basis. Among companies that raised funding this year, median value growth was $3.6 million higher among founder-CEOs.
According to Graham, founder-CEOs of high-growth companies are especially "more agile" than professional CEOs. That detail-oriented approach can lead to higher growth through product improvement, or by better motivating front-line employees."

Vulnerable businesses need entrepreneurs

Vulnerable companies need entrepreneurs. In my opinion, which is based on experience and observation but not supported by quantitative research, companies that regardless of their age rely primarily on one product or one revenue source should preferably have a founder at the helm.

Take Google, which is currently under pressure due to the rise of OpenAI with ChatGPT, while their revenue comes largely from ads, especially through the search engine.

As soon as the search engine generates less traffic, revenue will drop, and things will get very tough for Google. CEO Sundar Pichai is clearly a competent manager, but the next few years will show how good an entrepreneur he is.

We need only think back to the temporary successes of Nokia and Blackberry to see what happens when companies that lean on innovation are led by executives unable to adapt their products when they are attacked head-on.

Zuckerberg's flexibility

An excellent example of a relatively young founder who has mastered the craft is Mark Zuckerberg. When Instagram appeared to be a threat to Facebook, he quickly bought it for a billion dollars. An amount many frowned upon, but insiders knew it was a bargain. WhatsApp was about 20 times as expensive, but still a good deal.

When Snapchat posed a major threat to Instagram with Stories, Zuckerberg simply had Instagram copy Snapchat's full functionality, without ego. This saved Instagram. He is currently trying something similar in response to TikTok.

I am convinced that a classical manager would never have bought Instagram and Whatsapp or let Instagram respond so quickly to competition from Snapchat and TikTok. That Zuckerberg has now spent tens of billions on obscure Metaverse adventures is, by comparison, a rounding error.

Conclusion from thirty years as an entrepreneur and investor

Interestingly, many successful entrepreneurs say they have been mentored for years by a small group of experienced advisors who enjoy their trust. For example, ex-Intuit CEO Bill Campbell, about whom the excellent book Trillion Dollar Coach was written, was a famous advisor to Steve Jobs and the founders of Google, among others.

In Silicon Valley, investors and former entrepreneurs Reid Hoffman, Peter Thiel and Marc Andreessen are frequently mentioned names as examples of valued advisors. It is precisely in the combination of entrepreneurial experience and investment experience that they prove to be of unique value.

This topic is close to my heart because, after almost ten years as an employee during my school and college days, I have been an entrepreneur for 15 years and an investor and advisor for 15 years since.

Coachable crazies

My conclusion is that coachable entrepreneurs have the greatest chance of success.

One of the advantages of having been an employee first is that I learned mostly how I didn't want to deal with people once I became an employer. During my time as a young entrepreneur at Planet Internet, however, I have been immensely supported by valuable advice, both from entrepreneurs and managers.

In retrospect, I only realized how lucky I was that entrepreneurs like Eckart Wintzen (BSO) and Maarten van den Biggelaar (Quote Media) took the time for me, as did members of the Board of Directors of the Telegraaf and Ben Verwaayen of KPN.

It didn't escape me that Quote, Telegraph and KPN were shareholders, and that perspective obviously always came into play. But that doesn't diminish the quality of their opinions.

Later, as an advisor at the same Quote Media and at dance company ID&T, I saw how talents such as Jort Kelder and Duncan Stutterheim might appear to the outside world to be stubborn, but in practice, at crucial moments, they listened very carefully to advice - and then, as they should, made their own decisions.

It became more difficult in constellations where, on the contrary, many different winds were blowing, as I experienced with the OV Chipkaart: a consortium of public transport companies that competed among themselves, which tendered to a consortium of companies that in turn competed among themselves. 

At the Silicon Valley startup Jaunt, I experienced something similar. This virtual reality pioneer had a mix of tech and media people within both the team and the investors, a true fusion of Silicon Valley and Hollywood.

Making VR cameras as well as VR productions, having offices in Palo Alto and Santa Monica and owned by shareholders that ranged from the traditional profit-hungry Silicon Valley vc funds, to Disney and Sky; on top of that also a mix of American, European and Chinese investors. You end up with a sort of mash-up of fried rice and sauerkraut, or a pizza with ginger and kale. Separately excellent, but the combination doesn't work. It lacks focus and a unified mindset, which a good founder as CEO does have.

That's a long run-up to my conclusion: the best CEOs are founders who are maniacal in their vision, but coachable in their execution; call it coachable geeks. And then preferably coachable by both experienced founders *and* managers.

The sunglasses of the Uber driver already gave it away: this week I am in Dubai. 

Thanks for your interest and see you next week!

Categories
AI invest crypto technology

Short news: Elon Musk turns X into a news site, LinkedIn founder deepfakes, Tim Cook & Satya Nadella in Indonesia, intrigue at Techstars and men and women are now equal on Bumble

"Musk shared a deeper vision for the product, which he wants to build into a real-time synthesizer of news and reactions on social media. Effectively, he wants to use AI to combine breaking news and social commentary around big stories, present the compilation live and let you go deeper via chat.

"As more information becomes available, the news release will be updated to include that information. The goal is simple: to provide maximum accurate and timely information, citing the most significant sources."

Am very curious to see what news à la Musk will look like. It was not all hosanna for him this week, as Tesla's margin is now at 5% due to all the price cuts, much lower than is the norm in the auto industry. Furthermore, key employees were laid off, keeping things unsettled around the company.

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella announced during a visit to Indonesia that he will train as many as 840,000 people in the country to use AI and invest $1.7 billion in cloud services there. With both numbers, the question arises: how did they arrive at this figure?

Recently, Apple CEO Tim Cook was also in Indonesia, where President Joko Widodo tried to convince him to set up a factory, as yet without success. Indonesia could benefit from the difficult US-China relations with an Apple factory.  

  • Startup incubator Techstars in trouble

Layoffs, cutbacks and intrigue at incubator Techstars, according to this revealing report

  • America's most popular iPhone app: old games!

Long barred from the app store but now available for free download: Delta. Play Super Mario and other old Nintendo Gameboy games on the iPhone.

Dating app Bumble became famous because men had to wait for women to seek first contact. Fortunately, few men held their breath until they received a message once. That restriction on male initiative has now been removed with the introduction of a new feature called "opening moves." This allows female users, popularly known as women, to set a prompt to which male suitors can respond to start a conversation.

Donkey Kong on your iPhone or make your opening moves on Bumble, I hope I've given you something to do today.

Have a great Sunday and see you next week!

Categories
AI technology

Five conclusions after the chaos at OpenAI

Sam Altman is back at OpenAI and more powerful than before, but is that a good thing?

A few days after the kings drama at OpenAI, let's try to look over the ruins at this company whose mastermind, Chief Scientist Ilya Sutskever, has said that AI could herald the downfall of the world. Far too often it is forgotten that Sutskever and his colleague Jan Leike, also no slouch, published this text on OpenAI's official blog in July:

"Superintelligence will be the most impactful technology humanity has ever invented, and could help us solve many of the world’s most important problems. But the vast power of superintelligence could also be very dangerous, and could lead to the disempowerment of humanity or even human extinction."

Ilya Sutskever and Jan Leike, OpenAI

And oh yes, they have over $10 billion in the bank to figure out if they are going to save the world, or end it. Yet there are few serious attempts to seriously monitor, let alone regulate, OpenAI and its competitors.

Imagine Boeing developing a new plane with a similar PR text: 'this super-fast plane will fly on spot-cheap organic pea soup and could help humanity make aviation accessible to all, but it could also backfire and crash and blow up the earth.' The chances of getting a license wouldn't be very good. With AI, things are different; the tech bros just put the website live and see how it goes.

Move along, the turkey was great

What is the media reporting on now at OpenAI? About the Thanksgiving dinner where reinstated CEO Sam Altman sat down with Adam D'Angelo, one of the board members who had fired him just six days earlier. Both tweeted afterwards that they had a great time together. They are so cute.

Despite the media's tendency to quickly lapse into picking a hero and a villain when conflicts arise, the much-lauded Sam Altman is increasingly being viewed as demonstrating some odd behavior from time to time. According to the Washington Post, Altman's dismissal had little to do with a disagreement over the safety of AI, as first reported, but mostly with his tendency to tell only part of the truth while trying to line his pockets left and right.

Even if they would be Granny Smith green

Meanwhile, then, Altman is back with a new board about which there are many doubts. Christopher Manning, the director of Stanford's AI Lab, noted that none of the board members have knowledge of AI: "The newly formed OpenAI board is presumably still incomplete,” he told TechCrunch. “Nevertheless, the current board membership, lacking anyone with deep knowledge about responsible use of AI in human society and comprising only white males, is not a promising start for such an important and influential AI company."

I don't care what color and what gender they are, even if they are Granny Smith green with three types of reproductive organs, but I do prefer when they have an understanding of the matter that their own experts say has the potential to put humanity over the cliff.

Five conclusions after the chaos

1. The AI war has been won by America.

Look after a week of craziness and fuss at OpenAI and we see that Microsoft, the old board and the new board are all Americans. The competitors? Amazon, Google, Meta, Anthropic, you name them: Americans. The rest of the world watches and holds meetings and speeches, but it's a done deal.

2. Good governance is nice, but bad governance is disastrous.

By this I do not mean that the people who fired Altman were right or wrong, because no one still knows that; the crux of their argument was that Altman had not given full disclosure, and if that is true, that remains a mortal sin.

But the root of the problem was deeper. The OpenAI board had been appointed to safeguard the mission of the OpenAI Foundation, which, in a nutshell, was to develop AI to create a better world. Not to create maximum shareholder value, as has now become the goal. The problem arose because of those conflicting goals.

3. Twitter, or X as it is now called, remains the only relevant social network in a crisis.

Elon Musk went on a rampage again last week and that seems to cost him $75 million in revenue, but Altman and everyone else involved still chose X as a platform to tell their story. Not Threads or TikTok – although I would have liked to have seen this mud fight for power portrayed in dance.

4. Microsoft wins.

Under Bill Gates, I already thought Microsoft was a funny name, because the company was neither micro nor soft then either, but in the nearly 10 years under CEO Satya Nadella, Microsoft has become a dominant force in all kinds of markets.

While Amazon, Google, Meta and also Apple are struggling to develop a coherent AI strategy, Microsoft seems to have found a winning formula: it is investing heavily in OpenAI, which uses the Microsoft Azure cloud, returning much of the investment back to Microsoft. Meanwhile, Microsoft does enjoy the capital appreciation via its 49% stake in OpenAI.

5. AI should be tested and probably regulated

Precisely because companies like Microsoft, Google, Meta and Amazon also dominate in the field of AI, the development of AI must be carefully monitored by governments. The years of privacy violations, disinformation and abuse of power taking place through social media, for example, show that these companies cannot regulate themselves.

The tech bro's motto remains unchanged: move fast & break things. But let them do that nicely with their own planet, not the current one. The potential impact of AI on the world is simply too great to let the mostly socially limited minds running tech companies make the choices for society.

An initiative like the AI-Verify Foundation can be a vehicle to achieve responsible adoption of AI applications. I close with the same quote as last week from OpenAI's Chief Scientist, Ilya Sutskever, which shows the world's AI leaders almost hope that future AI systems will have compassion for humanity:

"The upshot is, eventually, AI systems will become very, very, very capable and powerful. We will not be able to understand them. They’ll be much smarter than us. By that time, it is absolutely critical that the imprinting is very strong, so they feel toward us the way we feel toward our babies."