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AI invest crypto

EU says to invest two hundred billion in AI, but how?

The European Union announced this week at the AI Action Summit in Paris that it will invest two hundred billion Euros in the development of AI. Curious clicking on the link leads directly to a deleted YouTube video: 'Video removed by the uploader'. These brainiacs are going to invest two hundred billion Euros of taxpayer money in AI?

One striking aspect of the story, because serious plans are as yet unobtainable, is the creation of 'AI Gigafactories', or large-scale data centers to serve as the backbone for European AI development. When politicians start spouting texts about "hundreds of billions of investments" and empty phrases like "AI Gigafactories," because data centers are apparently not sexy enough anymore, it is advisable to be vigilant.

Of course, the European rhetoric is a reaction to the ambitious American Stargate project. That too is weighed down by a Boy Scout objective like "to build and develop AI - and specifically AGI - for the benefit of all humanity."

The communique states that priorities include “ensuring AI is open, inclusive, transparent, ethical, safe, secure and trustworthy, taking into account international frameworks for all” and “making AI sustainable for people and the planet”.
It is as if miss World and Buzz Lightyear were handing in a homework assignment together.

The Guardian wrote up a clear summary of the AI summit, with three things standing out: first, the global recognition that AI is having a huge impact on society and the economy; second, that developments in AI are accelerating; and, unfortunately, third, that there is no consensus on how to regulate developments internationally.

The fear among entrepreneurs in Europe is that bureaucrats without substantive expertise will distribute the planned budget, which will result in wasted money and slow implementation.

Smarter European approach: embrace open source AI

A better approach would be to not simply spend these funds on infrastructure or vague programs, but to invest in AI companies working with open-source technologies, not based on but inspired by China's DeepSeek. By starting with a fully open-source codebase, including transparent training data, the EU can build an AI ecosystem that is widely accessible to large companies, startups, researchers, businesses and hopefully even individual developers.

The most practical approach would be the creation of a fund to invest in AI applications that build on this open-source base. This would ideally be done in partnership with existing investment funds in the market to avoid wasting taxpayer money, rather than a top-down model in which the EU itself tries to drive innovation.

The current trend within AI shows that most investment is going to large language models (LLMs), with companies like Meta and Microsoft spending tens of billions a year on AI development. This means that if Europe is not more strategic with its investment, it risks remaining behind.

Focus on open-source AI and a smart investment model rather than a purely infrastructure-driven approach could yet help Europe achieve a competitive and sustainable AI ecosystem. But if the strategy is not sharply translated into tactical and operational decisions soon, this historic opportunity will get bogged down in inefficiency and political rhetoric.

Elon Musk's OpenAI bid not for real

Elon Musk has announced his intention to make a nearly $100 billion bid for OpenAI, but the question is whether this is a serious acquisition proposal or a strategic move to thwart his archenemy Sam Altman. Musk, who co-founded OpenAI but later left acrimoniously, vehemently opposes OpenAI's transition from a nonprofit to a commercial company. A bid of this size would make it more difficult for OpenAI to move the shares held by the non profit organization to regular commercial shareholders.

A major complication is that Microsoft owns 49% of the shares in OpenAI, meaning Satya Nadella's company has a decisive vote in any acquisition. For Microsoft, a sale would raise nearly $50 billion, but the company also has a strategic stake in OpenAI because most of its AI infrastructure runs on Microsoft Azure. This makes it unlikely that Microsoft will stand and cheer when OpenAI is acquired, unless a deal is struck in which Musk's AI company XAI along with OpenAI becomes a major customer of Microsoft.

Remarkably, Sam Altman himself owns no shares in OpenAI, giving him little direct influence over an acquisition. This highlights OpenAI's unusual governance model, with control largely in the hands of the foundation that founded the company. Musk's bid therefore seems less a serious attempt to acquire OpenAI and more a tactical move to disrupt Altman's plans and make OpenAI's future uncertain. Surely investors will be scratching their heads before they will fork over the forty billion sought by Altman on a valuation of three hundred billion in this situation.

You need a search engine to make sense of Google Gemini's choices. 

AI UI is horrible

You'd almost forget in all the fuss to take a good look at OpenAI's products. MG Siegler did not hold back about ChatGPT's sadly tuneful interface:

"Well, now we're up to eight options – six in the main drop-down and still those same two "left-overs" in the sub-menu. And technically it's nine options if you include the "Temporary chat" toggle."

At Google, the user interface (UI) is just as horrible. The makers of the most Spartan, and thus most successful, search engine ever, have managed to turn their ChatGPT competitor Gemini into an incomprehensible AI menu. It is downright woeful, because there are extraordinary capabilities hidden beneath this wretched interface. See, for example, how Google AI Studio phenomenally explains how Photoshop works.

So I asked Google Pro 1.5 Deep Research, what a name, to produce an investment strategy for the European Union based on literature research. A few minutes later, Deep Research produced this Google Doc. Far from perfect, but better than anything produced so far by the EU.

Ethereum under fire

Ethereum, for years the leader in the world of smart contracts and after Bitcoin the crypto currency with the highest market cap, is at a crossroads. Despite the rising Bitcoin price and optimism in the crypto market, especially since Trump's election victory, Ethereum remains far behind and is trading even lower than a year ago.

Ethereum's share price is suffering from the rise of competitors such as Solana and Sui

What are the causes?

  • Lack of major updates: after "The Merge" (the switch from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake), there has been no new breakthrough.
  • Increasing competition: Solana, Sui and Aptos are gaining ground with faster and cheaper transactions.
  • Negative publicity: Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin's recent tweet about communism and decentralization was taken out of context and caused unnecessary uproar.

Ethereum is still seen as a fundamentally strong blockchain, but it may lose more and more market share to newer platforms that are more responsive to users' current needs.

Huge livestream error, token price rises?

In the third episode of the NFA Podcast, which Nisheta Sachdev makes with yours truly, she surprised me with the news that NEAR Protocol's token price had risen after a team member accidentally shared the wrong screen of his computer during a livestream, unwittingly treating viewers to carnal intimacy of the eighteen-plus genre.

The crypto world is known for its unpredictable market reactions, but what happened next was exceptional even for crypto: the price of NEAR rose 5.6% to $3.50. While it cannot be proven that the livestream incident is directly responsible for the price increase, it again raises the question of how much influence, if any, "fundamentals" have on the crypto market?

If a blunder like this can drive up the price, it means the market is guided more by hype than by the true value of a project. Even the Tinder Swindler, infamous since the Netflix documentary, is launching his own token. It is leading to increasing frustration among professional developers and investors in the blockchain world.

Nish explains the Near livestream incident

GameStop considers buying crypto

GameStop, the company that was bailed out by retail investors in 2021 during the WallStreetBets revolt, is now considering investing in Bitcoin and other crypto-assets. By the way, the movie about GameStop is particularly worth seeing, with splendid roles by Pete Davidson and Seth Rogen, among others.

San Francisco overrun by startup teenagers

When incubator Y Combinator recently had a party, the platters went around with glasses of soda instead of alcohol: many startup founders were simply too young to legally drink alcohol. San Francisco's startup scene is flooded with very young AI entrepreneurs, many of whom left college to start their own companies.

The cost of university education in the U.S. has risen so much that despite the low success rate, entrepreneurship is a legitimate option. Outside the U.S., university education often remains a more logical route because the cost of a university education is much lower and the funding and exit opportunities for startups are not as great than in Silicon Valley.

That and much more in the third episode of the NFA Podcast, in which I also share how my experiment with investing one hundred dollars last February went down, exclusively in tech stocks.

For the hasty viewer and clicker

00:00 Introduction to NFA Podcast and Hosts Nisheta and Michiel 

01:42 Surprising News in Crypto: Near Protocol Incident 

03:53 Market Reactions and Near Token Performance 

05:22 Ethereum's Market Sentiment and Fear Index 

08:09 Ethereum's Performance Compared to Other Blockchains 

09:29 Market Predictions and New Money Flowing In 

11:35 GameStop's Potential Move into Crypto 

12:42 Upcoming Launches: Tinder Swindler's Token 

13:06 Elon Musk's Bid for OpenAI 

14:44 The AI Summit and Global AI Treaties. 

16:49 Youth and Startups: The College Dropout Phenomenon 

20:44 Market Spotlight: Insights and Predictions 

22:34 Investing Strategies and Personal Experiences. 

24:44 Supermicro, Palantir and Nvidia 

25:20 Dutch Trance NFA Podcast Theme 

25:41 NFA Dutch Trance Theme Review 

25:59 Indian NFA Podcast Theme 

26:25 Indian NFA Theme Review

Categories
investing crypto technology

Token2049 Singapore proves: Web3 alive and kicking

I am sending this newsletter from Singapore, where the area around Marina Bay has been dominated for the past week by over twenty thousand visitors to Token2049, the largest Web3 event in the world. Although the conference officially ended on Thursday, some of  the more than 800(!) side events are still going on. Solana even held its own event Solana Breakpoint on Friday and Saturday, when the Formula 1 weekend was already in full swing.

'Hate the game, don't hate the players.' Some pre-war marketing tactics are still current in the Web3 world

Vitalik Buterin star of Token2049 

Amid the usual self-promotional talk and non-discussion, one speaker stood out: Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum. Buterin emphasized that Ethereum, once plagued by slow and expensive transactions that prevented mass adoption, can now perform large numbers of transactions quickly and cheaply.

Buterin then overshadowed the content of his own speech by breaking into a song. Still, it was an engaging and rare human moment at an otherwise marketing-dominated event.

It remains painful to see top athletes such as Lando Norris and Max Verstappen sit on panels with their crypto sponsors. McLaren is sponsored by crypto exchange OKX while rival exchange Bybit is a major contributor to Red Bull Racing's immense budget.

Verstappen and Norris had to answer hard hitting questions such as "is teamwork in Formula 1 as important as in business". It would be nice if for once Verstappen would answer: 'how nice that you asked, those other 900 employees of the team are just goofing around and I actually do everything myself; I put the stickers on the car myself the night before a race, pump up the tires in the morning and refuel the car neatly after the race as well'.

It remains unclear whether, apart from the ego of the proud sponsor parading next to "his" driver on the podium, anyone is any the wiser from such a kind of obligatory freestyle. Other crypto-sponsors in Formula One such as Stake (Alfa Romeo), Tezos (Red Bull), Kraken (Williams) and Fantom (Alpine) were less visible. 

Buterin's presentation made one curious about the film that has been released about him. Investor Fred Wilson said:

"This film is about the Ethereum blockchain and the developer ecosystem. But in reality, it's a chance to spend just under ninety minutes with Vitalik, where you learn more about him, how he lives, thinks and how he became who he is today.
I've been in the blockchain business for almost 15 years. I am a fan and holder of Bitcoin. I am a fan and holder of Solana. I am a fan and holder of Ethereum. I am a fan and holder of many other protocols, tokens and communities. I am fully into all of these.
But I must say that Vitalik has a special place in my mind and heart. He doesn't just talk pretty words; he lives by his beliefs and leads from those principles. He is a very special human being. And this film manages to show that in a great way."

Hopefully the film will soon be available to the general public, as at the moment it can only be seen through a complicated streaming service - which is onchain, of course.

Solana with its own phone

Token2049 covered four floors of booths and stages in the immense Marina Bay Sands convention center, but the main networking took place during the side events. For days, it was virtually impossible to eat or drink anything in the dozens of restaurants around Marina Bay, as all the hospitality venues had been rented out by companies for private events.

Although Token2049 officially ended on Thursday, Solana took over with the Solana Breakpoint conference on Friday and Saturday. Here it introduced the Seeker, a cell phone integrated with the Solana ecosystem. Linking a proprietary hardware device like a phone to a crypto ecosystem offers a new dimension to the growing diversity of Web3 applications, and in a market dominated by Apple, Samsung and Chinese phone makers, it is a very brave move. Whether it becomes successful is a question for another day.

Another theme that kept popping up during Token2049 was the increasing integration of the Web3 industry with the traditional financial sector, or TradFi. Still, the future of this arranged marriage remains unclear for now, at least until after the U.S. presidential election.

The Web3 world is openly hoping for a victory for Trump, who is more crypto-friendly than Harris. Or as one Indian-American Web3 insider said, ''I am brown and I know Trump doesn't like brown people; but he is pro-business and pro-crypto. So if he wins and helps our business grow, I'll make sure I help myself. Then we won't need Kamala." This rather cynical sentiment was quite prevalent this week.

Spotlight 9: Nvidia remains in the lead

Following the interest rate cut announced by the Fed, the stock market closed at record highs and the U.S. jobs market also did extremely well. It is interesting to end the third quarter by looking back at the performance of tech stocks in this calendar year so far.

At three quarters of 2024, the bottom line: Nvidia is not a one-day wonder

The clear winner this year is without a doubt Nvidia, up over 140%. If we look back a little further at what buying Nvidia shares would have yielded exactly one year ago, the chipmaker's success is even more eclatant. A $4,351 investment in 100 shares of Nvidia a year ago would be worth $11,338.71 today, which is an incredible gain of $6,987.71.

Again, I repeat it almost every week, I don't give financial advice, but I also don't want to shy away from what I think is an inescapable conclusion: Nvidia can hardly go wrong in the coming years because the demand for its products will remain high as long as the AI hype among the big players like Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon and Oracle continues.

Only when the world's biggest tech companies begin to doubt the return on their investments in AI, will Nvidia have a harder time growing in revenue and profits. Until then, it is an industry leader with no direct competitor.

Meta's more than 60% increase this year should not go unmentioned. Although that is partly explained by the sharp correction last year, the ad-driven network's margins remain as high as ever.

TON fastest riser in crypto

Despite the arrest of Telegram founder Pavel Durov, Telegram-affiliated TON has been a phenomenon this year, with 144% increase

Bitcoin (BTC) has outperformed stocks following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday, but the real winners in the crypto world are the altcoins.

Total3, an index that tracks the market capitalization of the top 125 cryptocurrencies, excluding Bitcoin and ether (ETH), was up 5.68% since the announcement of the rate cut. In contrast, Bitcoin's market capitalization rose only 4.4%.

The success of TON, which today stands for The Open Network but evolved from Telegram Open Network, continues to be linked to the growth of Telegram. A whole ecosystem of "Telegram Mini Apps"(TMA) is now emerging around Telegram that enable all sorts of applications, from gaming to fund raising, from which the TONcoin benefits.

Today the exciting week in Singapore concluded with the always spectacular Formula One Grand Prix at the Marina Bay circuit. As an opening act for Lando Norris and Max Verstappen, 30 Seconds to Mars (with multi-talented Jared Leto) and Kylie Minogue performed, while after the race Lenny Kravitz demonstrated how to stay cool in leather pants in 90 degrees and almost 90% humidity. All in all, it was a fantastic week.

Thanks for the interest and see you next week!

Categories
crypto technology

The best tech investments of the last five years were not Apple or Bitcoin, but Tesla and Ethereum

At the twenty-fifth edition of this newsletter, I want to look across this dull news week at what has been the best-yielding investment in tech over the last five years. To my surprise, it was not Apple, Bitcoin or Nvidia, but Tesla. In the crypto world, Ethereum turned out to have risen twice as much as Bitcoin. Ok, one news fact did stand out this week: Tinder is introducing a $500-a-month subscription, for real enthusiasts.

If Tesla and Ethereum made a car together, it would look like this, according to Midjourney.

Tesla and Ethereum the big winners

Tesla rose as much as 1287% and Ethereum 611% over the last five years, against Nvidia 492%, Bitcoin 305% and Apple 210%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500, the classic benchmark, did 48%. War and inflation notwithstanding, saving has still proven far more expensive than index investing.

Tesla and Elon Musk I leave to Walter Isaacson, whose book on Musk is a huge hit. Rather, I look at Ethereum, precisely because the traditional media rarely, if ever, publish a decent analysis on this underrated platform.

But before we dive into the numbers and prices, it's important to review what Ethereum does and can do and how it differs from that blockchain brother from another mother, Bitcoin. For this description, I used ChatGPT and Gert-Jan Lasterie's standard work.

Ethereum is a public workshop

Imagine that the Internet is a big city. In that city you have a market for commerce, a library for information, a bank for money matters, and so on. Bitcoin is something like a special kind of gold; valuable and you can keep it, but otherwise you can't do much with it. The exchange rate varies greatly and so you won't be using it to pay for anything anytime soon.

Ethereum is something completely different, where a group of people got together at the initiative of Vitalik Buterin and said, "instead ofjust making a new kind of money or a different kind of gold, shall we put some kind of public workshop in the city where people can build all sorts of things?"

With Ethereum, you can create "smart contracts," which sounds a bit like magic contracts, which automatically execute themselves once certain conditions are met. So suppose you want to rent a house. Normally you would go to a real estate agent or housing association, show your ID, pay and sign paperwork.

Based on Ethereum, landlord and tenant can use a smart contract that says, "Whoever pays the digital key fee will automatically get the digital key to the house." That transaction takes place on the Internet, no middleman is needed, everything happens automatically based on the smart contract.

But it doesn't stop there. Ethereum is used to build so-called "decentralized applications," called dApps. These are programs that do not run on one central computer but are spread across many computers worldwide. This often makes them more secure and less susceptible to fraud or censorship.

The magic word is decentralized

There is also "DeFi" ("DieFai"), which stands for "Decentralized Finance. These are financial services such as loans or insurance that work on Ethereum through smart contracts, without the involvement of banks or other financial institutions. The 2021 NFT boom was also built on the Ethereum platform.

Unlike Bitcoin and Ripple, Ethereum is technically not a currency, but an open-source software platform for blockchain applications - with Ether (ETH) being the cryptocurrency used within the Ethereum network.

In short, Ethereum is special because it is much more than just a digital currency. It is a complete digital world where you can enter into all kinds of transactions and agreements without the need for anyone else.

It's like a new, smarter layer of the Internet. To join you only need ETH as a means of payment, similar to buying a festival coin when you go to festivals because that coin is accepted as the only means of payment.

Why is Ethereum risky from an investment standpoint?

So much for the utopian vision: a world computer with smart contracts. There is nothing wrong with that, and as an entrepreneur, I am a big fan of access to a development platform like Ethereum. I won't even rule out Ethereum's creators getting a Nobel Prize in economics one day.

But from an investment standpoint, let's look at a fundamental economic principle: scarcity - or in the case of Ethereum, the lack thereof. Every right-thinking person supports Ethereum's expansive vision. It wants to be the oil that drives the gears of Web3. But the oil supply is finite; Ethereum is not.

Bitcoin has its own counter-story. It is limited to twenty-one million Bitcoins, which means built-in scarcity. You don't have to be an economist to understand that scarcity drives demand, which in turn drives up the price.

But Ethereum is like a never-ending digital oil well. Great for powering the network and ensuring there is always enough, but not so great for the fundamental principle of supply and demand. If ETH becomes too abundant, its value may decline, causing the price per coin to fall. The infinite supply means that ETH becomes as common as tap water in developed countries: of course you need it, but you're not going to pay a premium for it.

Thus, the lack of a supply limit for Ethereum can be the Achilles heel for a stable developing price. Therefore, keep a sharp eye on it if you are considering investing in Ethereum after the following paragraphs, because the lack of a supply limit is not icing on the cake; it could be the whole cake, or even the whole pastry - in a country full of diabetics.

Spotlight 9: TSLA phenomenal, ETH rises twice as fast as Bitcoin

With 1287% increase in five years, Tesla deserves a spot in Spotlight 9.

The idea behind Spotlight 9, a name coined by ChatGPT for this column, was to briefly track weekly how the major tech investments were doing compared to the benchmark, the S&P 500. It remains simple: if an investment does not outperform the S&P 500 over the long term, why invest in it and not the S&P? Amazon is such a setback, up only 29% over the last five years versus +48% for the S&P 500.

Stock market sentiment is important because when it rains there, it trickles down throughout the tech world to the youngest startups. If there are no exits, no IPOs, that means less investment in larger tech companies that are not yet publicly traded and it affects the entire tech sector. Ultimately, it limits new innovations.

Meta out, Tesla in

Tesla was not in my Spotlight 9 list because I follow the five biggest tech companies weekly, ranked by market value. Those are Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft and Meta (Facebook). Tesla falls just outside that, but it gets interesting: Meta is currently worth $769 billion and Tesla ... $767 billion.

Based on its performance over the last five years, I threw Meta out of Spotlight 9 and Tesla is in it as of today. Zuckerberg must be devastated and in Musk's house, Elon and the little x's are certainly running an algorithmically calculated polonaise. Let's hope Musk doesn't disappoint with Tesla or I'll have to make another picture.

No master forecasters

In addition to the five largest tech companies by market value, I also follow the two largest crypto currencies, Bitcoin and Ethereum. There is so little coverage of crypto in the traditional media, and I myself have so little interest in daily prices, that I had completely missed the fact that after all the highly exposed price declines of the last two years, Ethereum and Bitcoin have still proven to be very good investments for people who look a little further than a week, a month or a year.

There is hatred and envy in the crypto world between Bitcoin maximalists and altcoin lovers. That's something like a metalhead explaining to a rapper why his music is better. They are incomparable giants, with Bitcoin, as mentioned, being somewhat comparable to a popular, digital version of gold, while Ethereum is a widely used building block of Web3.

Both have some utility, but how that will be reflected in the price is a total guess. As far as I know, at least in September 2018, no one was predicting that Ethereum (+611%) would appreciate twice as much as Bitcoin (+305%).

Tinder's $500-a-month subscription plan

'Hate the game, don't hate the players' thought Tinder and introduced a $500 subscription. Per month.

I read this article and I could not read it without hearing a translation from Amsterdam-West in my head every five sentences. I translate those below back into language that will keep this email from ending up in your spam filter.

Let's start with this passage: "We know that there is a subset of highly engaged and active users who prioritize more effective and efficient ways to find connections," said Tinder Chief Product Officer Mark Van Ryswyk, "which is why we have been conducting extensive testing with this audience recently."

Translation: "We know that there is a horde of horny panters willing to pay unlimited money to us, as long as they have new victims be able to find loves."

Going forward: "The new plan announced Friday, called Tinder Select, was only offered to less than 1% of Tinder users who are among the app's most active, the company said. For nearly $6,000 a year, users will get access to new features, such as 'VIP' search, matching and conversation, that are not currently available with existing paid subscriptions."

Translation: "We don't know exactly how to do it legally yet, but we are going to give this group of addicts a chance to get their victims target audience, at the expense of then those customers of ours who only pay a few tens."

Another gem from the article: "Tinder parent company Match Group Inc. has experience with expensive subscriptions. In 2022, it bought The League, an invitation-only dating app aimed at "ambitious, career-oriented singles. The League has a VIP subscription that costs $1,000 a week. The company previously said the success of The League's expensive subscription caused Match Group to reconsider how it could appeal to "high-intention users on its other apps such as Tinder."

Conclusion: it is heartening that people today have the opportunity to find more potential partners and/or playmates than they used to find at the bus stop to the office or at the billiard bar. Butreh... "high intention users? We used to have very different designations for that kind of low-level guys and girls.

In conclusion

YouTuber and postdoctoral researcher Rob ter Horst of the CeMM Research Center for Molecular Medicine in Vienna tested the new Apple watches and made this fun and informative, science-based video about them. According to his resume, Ter Horst is "designer and research subject at the same time of an extensive N=1 study in the field of computational chemistry and bioinformatics.

Maybe nice if Ter Horst unleashed his scientific expertise and N=1 approach on that $500 subscription, went wild on Tinder for a month and published all the findings of his scientific research on YouTube?

Categories
AI crypto technology

Worldcoin proves: people give away their eyeballs for a few coins

The technology industry is increasingly suffering from excessive attention to tech founders. Elon Musk continues to dominate the spotlight, whether he is reviving Twitter or tearing it down, depending on whom you ask. Still, the most significant news of the past week was the unveiling of Worldcoin. This project drew attention because of its shiny "orb," which scans the iris of new users, and because of the involvement of co-founder Sam Altman, also the CEO of OpenAI.

It was the week of Barbie and Oppenheimer, or Barbenheimer, and Worldcoin's Orb. Photo: created with Midjourney

Two months ago I wrote about Worldcoin and the company behind it called Tools for Humanity, which then presented itself on its 1-page website with the slogan "a technology company committed to a more just economic system" and raised as much as $115 million for the Worldcoin project.

The goal, the founders say, is to create a global identification system that will help reliably distinguish between humans and AI, in preparation for when intelligence is no longer a reliable indicator of being human. At Worldcoin, verification of humanity is ensured through the use of an Orb, a sphere: a biometric iris scanner.

Shiny happy orb people. Photo: Worldcoin

But according to Alex Blania, CEO and co-founder of Tools for Humanity and Worldcoin project leader, there is a bigger purpose than just identification as a human being:

'We seek universal access to the global economy, regardless of country or background, and accelerate the transition to an economic future where everyone on earth is welcome and benefits'

The definition of a pyramid scheme?

Who is not moved to tears by this noble endeavor? Who is against being welcome on earth? Coindesk visited Worldcoin's headquarters in Berlin and from this brilliant article, "Inside the Orb," the impression emerges that Altman and Blania possess a unique combination of talent, otherworldliness and opportunism.

So they talk about Worldcoin as a crucial step toward a Universal Basic Income (UBI) for the entire world population, because these men think big. 

But they are particularly vague when the question is asked who should then pay for that universal basic income for our planet. Altman says of this:

"The hope is that when people want to buy this token, because they believe this is the future and there will be an influx into this economy. New token buyers is how it gets paid for, eventually."

Sam Altman, co-founder Worldcoin

Aha, so the influx of new buyers funds the system. That rings a bell, and I asked ChatGPT, the product of Sam Altman's other company, OpenAI, what the definition of a pyramid scheme is. Here it is:

'A pyramid scheme is a business model in which members are recruited through a promise of payments or services for enrolling others in the system, rather than providing investments or selling products. If recruiting multiplies, recruiting soon becomes impossible and most members cannot benefit; pyramid systems are therefore unsustainable and often illegal.'

I'm not saying Worldcoin is a pyramid scheme. Only that ChatGPT says it looks a lot like one.

Free coins for your iris

A cult of personality is emerging around Sam Altman reminiscent of the golden years of Steve Jobs and Elon Musk. Entire articles are devoted tothe 400(!) companies in which Altman has invested.

Partly for this reason, people lined up in several places around the world last week to have their eyes scanned by Worldcoin's orb. The media cheerfully helped make the hype as big as possible, with service journalism like this article in India, "Sam Altman's Worldcoin is here: how to get your free coin.

Even the tweet in which Altman jubilates that every eight seconds someone has their iris scanned by Worldcoin was included in the article.

Because the system works stunningly simple: download the free Worldcoin app, scan your eyes at an orb, get a World ID and your Worldcoin app instantly receives 25 free Worldcoins; except in America, as Gizmodo experienced. But it's customer onboarding with a simplism and efficiency that would be the envy of a schoolyard drug dealer.

Critics have a point

Twitter would not be Twitter (oh no, it is also no longer Twitter but is now called X, but more on that later), if it were not for a number of astute critics who have analyzed Worldcoin well, such as here and here.

Ethereum founder and widely acclaimed ethicist within the blockchain industry Vitalik Buterin immediately warned of the possible, unintended, bad consequences of Worldcoin's approach:

'Risks include inevitable privacy breaches, further erosion of people's ability to surf the Internet anonymously, coercion by authoritarian governments and the potential impossibility of being simultaneously secure and decentralized.'

Vitalik Buterin, co-founder Ethereum

For now, let's believe Blania and Altman's promise that iris data will be immediately deleted from the orb and not stored. But how many fake orbs will be used by criminals to defraud consumers of their iris scan?  

In any case, the question is justified whether a centrally run company should undertake this kind of initiative. World ID is effectively a universal passport, why should it be developed by a commercial company?

Remember, for all the fancy promises and goals, this is a commercial organization and the founders and backers own 25% of all Worldcoin. That's a higher tax rate than VAT. Even stranger: from Asia, I cannot see the pages in the white paper that deal with these tokenomics at all, because they are shielded. A problem more people faced. Why are they shielding information from the same people who are allowed to have their eyes scanned?

Decrypt summed up Buterin's objections well, although the schematic objection Buterin shared in his blog post is also illuminating:

Vitalik Buterin's schematic representation of the problem

'Proof of Personhood' is relevant, but not in this way

Cybercrime will only increase in the age of AI, so there is a need for proof that you are dealing with a human being and not a computer program. Just not in the way Worldcoin is tackling the problem. Michael Casey of Coindesk puts it this way:

'The risk is not with the technology per se - we have known for years that AI is capable of destroying us. It is that if we concentrate control of these technologies with a handful of overly powerful companies motivated to use them as proprietary "black box" systems for profit, they will quickly move into dangerous, humanity-harming territory, just as the Web2 platforms did.

Still, there is at least one positive aspect that can emerge from the Worldcoin project. It draws attention to the need for some sort of proof of humanity, which may give impetus to the many interesting projects that seek to give people more control over their identity in the Web3/AI era.

The answer to proving and elevating authentic humanity could lie in capturing the "social graph" of our online connections, relationships, interactions and authorized credentials through decentralized identity models (DID) or initiatives such as the decentralized social networking protocol (DSNP) that is part of Project Liberty.

Or it could still lie in a biometric solution like what Worldcoin is working on, but hopefully with a more decentralized, less corporate structure. What is clear is that we need to do something.

Portable identity and reputation

Casey's line of thinking leads to a system of identification and reputation, where you can use services anonymously, but share your identity and reputation if you wish. My Uber score, for example, is 4.96, but if I want to book a room through Airbnb, I do so as a completely unknown individual.

This is why a landlord is the first to ask for a passport copy, while it would also be valuable for Airbnb and the landlord to know that at least as a passenger in an Uber, I did not demolish or vomit under the cab. Such a system where you as a user carry your online reputation with you and decide for yourself to share at a time you deem appropriate would be extremely useful in the digital economy.

Universal basic income for the world's population is so far-reaching that it should be introduced through normal democratic processes. Let's not leave that kind of major social issue to a few men from Berlin; historically that has not proven to be a happy combination.

Twitter becomes X

It can't have escaped anyone's notice, Elon Musk is turning Twitter into X. What a romantic he is, isn't he, to name his company after his youngest sonHe explains that in the coming months "your entire financial world can be orchestrated" from X. Because Musk wants to make Twitter a "super-app," an all-encompassing app that merges information, communication and transactions. Similar to China's highly successful WeChat. Musk wants to get rid of the hated ad model as soon as possible.

Musk will look eagerly at South Asian Grab and GoJek, which will allow users to not only order cabs (on cars or scooters), but also pay their bills and even hire personal shoppers to go to the store of your choice to do your shopping. Of course, with a margin for Grab and GoJek on each transaction.

Every second Musk spends on the overrated Twitter remains a waste of time and a waste of his talent. I still hope one day Musk gets angry about Alzheimer's, cancer and the mental health of humanity and uses his undeniable talents to solve those problems, for example with a biotech company. Musk has mastered development of software, hardware and mechanical innovations, how hard would biotech be for him? 

The informative podcast More or Less, from the couples Morin and Lessin, discussed Musk's plans for Twitter in detail this week. It's the only podcast I know of, by the way, in which two couples discuss a specific industry, noting that ex-Wall Street Journal reporter Jessica Lessin is the astute founder of the online trade magazine The Information and Dave Morin is an investor who previously started Path, the most beautiful app of a failed social network I've ever used.

Notable links this week

Bill Gates has a podcast

Speaking of notable podcasts: Bill Gates has started a podcast called Unconfuse Me, and the first edition featured actor Seth Rogen and his wife Lauren as guests. Apparently that's a trend, to appear as a married couple on a podcast. I can hear you thinking, "Bill Gates has a podcast with Seth Rogen, doesn't that sound like Kermit the Frog with Scooby Doo as a guest? It certainly sounds that way, but it turned into an unexpectedly candid conversation about Alzheimer's, home care and recreational drug use, among other topics. Playback at double speed is not recommended.

Barbenheimer does nearly $1.2 billion in a week, Oppenheimer breaks IMAX projectors

The box office success of Barbie and Oppenheimer is unexpectedly huge: Barbie is expected to end the weekend with sales of $750 million and Oppenheimer is approaching $400 million. Even more strikingly, I found that the 70 millimeter version of Oppenheimer in the IMAX is so complex that the film is sometimes out of sync with the sound and even literally breaks. So much for all the doomsday scenarios that "old-fashioned" cinemas would lose out in the streaming era. Good feature films are drawing more audiences to theaters than ever.

Barbenheimer, but made by AI

If Barbie and Oppenheimer were squeezed into one movie, this would be the trailer. I say it too often about AI applications, but it's incredible that this was created entirely by AI: image, sound, video. Above all, the speed at which these kinds of applications are developing is unparalleled. The last time I was so stunned by a technology on the Internet was over 25 years ago when George Michael presented video in a Web browser.

Spotlight 9: Party Q2 at Google and Facebook

Yes, I know they are actually called Alphabet and Meta these days, but admit it, who reads on when those names are in the headline? It was the week when the second quarter results were released so there was a lot of movement in the stock markets. This web page contains a short, handy overview of the results of the major tech companies.

Meta and Alphabet rise, Microsoft falls. Investing in the stock market thus seems like a sprint, not a marathon.

The short-sightedness in the stock markets was demonstrated for the umpteenth time this week. Alphabet and Meta made sharp price jumps, due to higher-than-expected sales while partly driven by currency differences. Granted, Alphabet made 28% more sales on cloud services and that will only increase in the AI era.

However, Meta lost a whopping $21 billion in 18 months on investments in Reality Labs, Meta's business unit that is doing something with all the buzzwords of the last two years, including Web3, Metaverse, AR, VR and anything with difficult glasses. Result: 10% share price gain. How is it possible?

Microsoft, which has taken a tremendously strong position in the field of AI by incorporating OpenAI into the Bing search engine *and* invested as much as $10 billion in OpenAI, a guaranteed hit, was not understood by investors because the investments in AI "do not lead to higher sales right away. Result: 2% decline.

The pink cloud is a schematic representation of my brain as I look at the stock market and see Meta rising, while Microsoft is falling. Photo: created with Midjourney

CNBC doesn't get it either and explains it some more:

'The growth in AI has the potential to drive Microsoft's two largest businesses: the public cloud Azure and the more traditional and market-leading productivity software Office.'

CNBC

That is exactly how it is, but investors apparently had a horizon this week that ended with the Friday afternoon drinks.

Until next week, happy Sunday!