Categories
invest technology

Silicon Valley divided over choice between founders or managers

Because I was traveling this weekend, I don't have a good overview of the most important tech news. Therefore, I devote this newsletter to the only topic of conversation last week in tech circles: founders or managers - who are better?

The Uber driver's gold-rimmed sunglasses are a symbol of where I am this week. The answer is in the last photo, at the bottom.

In Silicon Valley last week most conversations were dominated by the discussions about "Founder Mode", following a blog post by Paul Graham, founder of the world's most successful startup incubator Y Combinator. Graham argues that startup founders shouldn't listen to investors who often insist on appointing experienced CEOs and managers, which Graham says often has disastrous consequences.

Founders or managers?

Operating in "founder mode," according to Graham, means adhering to a founder's mindset and management style. It's about bypassing rigid organizational structures and fostering close collaboration between departments. In contrast, startups in "manager mode" attract competent, experienced managers to lead teams with minimal interference from the CEO.

"The way managers are taught to run companies seems to be like modular design in the sense that you treat subtrees of the org chart as black boxes. You tell your direct reports what to do, and it's up to them to figure out how. But you don't get involved in the details of what they do. That would be micromanaging them, which is bad.
"
Graham wrote.

Airbnb almost successfully managed into the ground

He was inspired to write his blog post by a recent speech by Airbnb co-founder Brian Chesky at Y Combinator. In it, Chesky highlighted the pitfalls of conventional wisdom when scaling businesses, often advising to hire good people and give them autonomy. When he followed this advice at Airbnb, it led to disappointing results.

In his own words, inspired by Steve Jobs, Chesky developed a new approach, which now seems to be working, given Airbnb's strong financial performance - although residents of the inner cities of Barcelona and Amsterdam will think otherwise, awash in a wave of rolling suitcases and higher rents due to Airbn's "success".

Many founders in the audience shared similar experiences as Chesky and realized that the usual advice harmed rather than helped them. Chesky pointed out that founders are also often advised to run their companies as professional managers upon strong growth, which often proves ineffective.

Apple and Microsoft successful in manager mode

According to Chesky and Paul Graham, founders possess unique skills that managers without entrepreneurial backgrounds often lack. By suppressing these instincts, founders can actually harm their companies.

Risa Mish, management professor at Cornell University, contrasted that in Observer that it was precisely Steve Jobs who was succeeded with great success by the experienced manager Tim Cook. Microsoft has also performed many times better under Satya Nadella than anyone ever expected.

"But it could be as simple as the difference between a team trying to create new things and a company focused on growing existing products and revenue streams," Mish said.

Examples abound in both camps

Mish has apparently forgotten that Steve Jobs was fired from Apple in the 1980s by CEO John Sculley, who came from Pepsi Cola and ironically was recruited by Jobs himself.

The only innovation Sculley introduced at Apple was the legendary flop Newton, because he was unable to match the undeniably huge market potential of the mobile device (later proven correct by the iPhone) with the right timing, the most important skill for an innovative CEO. The technology was far from ready for a device like the Newton; high-speed mobile Internet was lacking and the small processors were still too weak.

Before I digress further: contrasted with the success of executives Tim Cook at Apple and Satya Nadella at Microsoft is a literally and figuratively (numerically and symbolically) equally great success in the person of Nvidia founder Jensen Huang, who has been CEO of the chipmaker he himself founded for more than three decades.

Nor will Salesforce shareholders shed any tears that founder Marc Benioff has been in charge there for more than a quarter century and, according to The Information, is even working on a comeback, as if that was necessary since Benioff was never out of it. In short: whether it's successful founders or successful managers, there are plenty of examples in both camps. Time for a quantitative comparison!

The data shows: founders perform better

Fortunately, the dilemma has since been studied quantitatively and it turns out that Paul Graham's thesis is correct: founder mode is often superior when it comes to value creation, according to an analysis of PitchBook data.

Pitchbook is clear: founders are better than managers.

Pitchbook concludes:

"In each of the past five years, VC-backed founder-led companies grew in value significantly faster than non-founder-led companies. This year, the relative rate of value creation for founder-CEOs was 22.4%, compared to 4.7% for non-founder-CEOs.
In the chosen methodology, the relative rate figure reflects the percentage of value increase between funding rounds, expressed on an annual basis. Among companies that raised funding this year, median value growth was $3.6 million higher among founder-CEOs.
According to Graham, founder-CEOs of high-growth companies are especially "more agile" than professional CEOs. That detail-oriented approach can lead to higher growth through product improvement, or by better motivating front-line employees."

Vulnerable businesses need entrepreneurs

Vulnerable companies need entrepreneurs. In my opinion, which is based on experience and observation but not supported by quantitative research, companies that regardless of their age rely primarily on one product or one revenue source should preferably have a founder at the helm.

Take Google, which is currently under pressure due to the rise of OpenAI with ChatGPT, while their revenue comes largely from ads, especially through the search engine.

As soon as the search engine generates less traffic, revenue will drop, and things will get very tough for Google. CEO Sundar Pichai is clearly a competent manager, but the next few years will show how good an entrepreneur he is.

We need only think back to the temporary successes of Nokia and Blackberry to see what happens when companies that lean on innovation are led by executives unable to adapt their products when they are attacked head-on.

Zuckerberg's flexibility

An excellent example of a relatively young founder who has mastered the craft is Mark Zuckerberg. When Instagram appeared to be a threat to Facebook, he quickly bought it for a billion dollars. An amount many frowned upon, but insiders knew it was a bargain. WhatsApp was about 20 times as expensive, but still a good deal.

When Snapchat posed a major threat to Instagram with Stories, Zuckerberg simply had Instagram copy Snapchat's full functionality, without ego. This saved Instagram. He is currently trying something similar in response to TikTok.

I am convinced that a classical manager would never have bought Instagram and Whatsapp or let Instagram respond so quickly to competition from Snapchat and TikTok. That Zuckerberg has now spent tens of billions on obscure Metaverse adventures is, by comparison, a rounding error.

Conclusion from thirty years as an entrepreneur and investor

Interestingly, many successful entrepreneurs say they have been mentored for years by a small group of experienced advisors who enjoy their trust. For example, ex-Intuit CEO Bill Campbell, about whom the excellent book Trillion Dollar Coach was written, was a famous advisor to Steve Jobs and the founders of Google, among others.

In Silicon Valley, investors and former entrepreneurs Reid Hoffman, Peter Thiel and Marc Andreessen are frequently mentioned names as examples of valued advisors. It is precisely in the combination of entrepreneurial experience and investment experience that they prove to be of unique value.

This topic is close to my heart because, after almost ten years as an employee during my school and college days, I have been an entrepreneur for 15 years and an investor and advisor for 15 years since.

Coachable crazies

My conclusion is that coachable entrepreneurs have the greatest chance of success.

One of the advantages of having been an employee first is that I learned mostly how I didn't want to deal with people once I became an employer. During my time as a young entrepreneur at Planet Internet, however, I have been immensely supported by valuable advice, both from entrepreneurs and managers.

In retrospect, I only realized how lucky I was that entrepreneurs like Eckart Wintzen (BSO) and Maarten van den Biggelaar (Quote Media) took the time for me, as did members of the Board of Directors of the Telegraaf and Ben Verwaayen of KPN.

It didn't escape me that Quote, Telegraph and KPN were shareholders, and that perspective obviously always came into play. But that doesn't diminish the quality of their opinions.

Later, as an advisor at the same Quote Media and at dance company ID&T, I saw how talents such as Jort Kelder and Duncan Stutterheim might appear to the outside world to be stubborn, but in practice, at crucial moments, they listened very carefully to advice - and then, as they should, made their own decisions.

It became more difficult in constellations where, on the contrary, many different winds were blowing, as I experienced with the OV Chipkaart: a consortium of public transport companies that competed among themselves, which tendered to a consortium of companies that in turn competed among themselves. 

At the Silicon Valley startup Jaunt, I experienced something similar. This virtual reality pioneer had a mix of tech and media people within both the team and the investors, a true fusion of Silicon Valley and Hollywood.

Making VR cameras as well as VR productions, having offices in Palo Alto and Santa Monica and owned by shareholders that ranged from the traditional profit-hungry Silicon Valley vc funds, to Disney and Sky; on top of that also a mix of American, European and Chinese investors. You end up with a sort of mash-up of fried rice and sauerkraut, or a pizza with ginger and kale. Separately excellent, but the combination doesn't work. It lacks focus and a unified mindset, which a good founder as CEO does have.

That's a long run-up to my conclusion: the best CEOs are founders who are maniacal in their vision, but coachable in their execution; call it coachable geeks. And then preferably coachable by both experienced founders *and* managers.

The sunglasses of the Uber driver already gave it away: this week I am in Dubai. 

Thanks for your interest and see you next week!

Categories
AI invest crypto technology

Short news: Elon Musk turns X into a news site, LinkedIn founder deepfakes, Tim Cook & Satya Nadella in Indonesia, intrigue at Techstars and men and women are now equal on Bumble

"Musk shared a deeper vision for the product, which he wants to build into a real-time synthesizer of news and reactions on social media. Effectively, he wants to use AI to combine breaking news and social commentary around big stories, present the compilation live and let you go deeper via chat.

"As more information becomes available, the news release will be updated to include that information. The goal is simple: to provide maximum accurate and timely information, citing the most significant sources."

Am very curious to see what news à la Musk will look like. It was not all hosanna for him this week, as Tesla's margin is now at 5% due to all the price cuts, much lower than is the norm in the auto industry. Furthermore, key employees were laid off, keeping things unsettled around the company.

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella announced during a visit to Indonesia that he will train as many as 840,000 people in the country to use AI and invest $1.7 billion in cloud services there. With both numbers, the question arises: how did they arrive at this figure?

Recently, Apple CEO Tim Cook was also in Indonesia, where President Joko Widodo tried to convince him to set up a factory, as yet without success. Indonesia could benefit from the difficult US-China relations with an Apple factory.  

  • Startup incubator Techstars in trouble

Layoffs, cutbacks and intrigue at incubator Techstars, according to this revealing report

  • America's most popular iPhone app: old games!

Long barred from the app store but now available for free download: Delta. Play Super Mario and other old Nintendo Gameboy games on the iPhone.

Dating app Bumble became famous because men had to wait for women to seek first contact. Fortunately, few men held their breath until they received a message once. That restriction on male initiative has now been removed with the introduction of a new feature called "opening moves." This allows female users, popularly known as women, to set a prompt to which male suitors can respond to start a conversation.

Donkey Kong on your iPhone or make your opening moves on Bumble, I hope I've given you something to do today.

Have a great Sunday and see you next week!

Categories
technology

Apple Vision Pro better than expected

It costs a little, but then you have something.

Apple has since been surpassed by Microsoft as the world's most valuable company, and the former stock market darling still got a whirl from Wall Street despite rising sales, while virtually all tech companies rose. Perhaps that is precisely why there was a lot of attention on the launch of the Apple Vision Pro, the mixed reality headset that Apple itself interestingly describes as "spatial computing.

When the Apple Vision Pro was announced last year, I wrote

'All the omens are that the Apple Vision Pro will be a flop - a flop by Apple standards, that is. But that's not a bad thing at all. At least Apple is trying to develop something new again, and that's better than unimaginatively buying back its own shares for hundreds of billions, as it has in recent years.' 

Because the price is too high at $3,500 to break open a mass market, there is no reason to change opinion about the Vision Pro's short-term business impact.

Apple is on its way to $500 billion in annual sales, so before any new product raises an eyebrow when going through the annual figures, it has to come close to the annual sales of Apple's least contributing product. That's the iPad, which still did $7 billion in sales last quarter. To get anywhere near that, Apple would have to sell a few million copies of the Apple Vision Pro, which is not going to happen with the current model at this price.

Vanity Fair was invited by Apple CEO Tim Cook to learn about the Apple Vision Pro, which led to this revelation from the reporter:

'When I turn it off, every other device feels flat and boring: my 75-inch OLED TV feels like a TV from the '90s; my iPhone feels like a flip phone from yesteryear, and even the real world around me feels surprisingly flat. And here's the problem. 

In the same way I can't imagine driving a car without a stereo, in the same way I can't imagine not having a phone to communicate with people or take pictures of my children, in the same way I can't imagine trying to work without a computer, I can envision a day when we all can't imagine living without augmented reality (AR). 

When we become more and more encapsulated by technology, to the point that we crave these glasses like a drug [...], the dopamine rush that this resolution of AR can deliver.'

Most reviews were less lyrical than this one, but mostly positive. The bottom line is that Apple has once again succeeded in developing a surprisingly special and high-quality product. And yet, there's something nagging.

Apple tries to solve an unsolvable problem

Wired correctly states that a "killer app" has not yet been found for the Apple Vision Pro. It is not yet the ultimate entertainment device and that is not because of the quality of the image, the sound or the controls, because they are extremely good. It's because of the applications, and then not even the "content," the traditional video narration form in picture and sound. The problem lies in the lack of new communication applications between people.

Now I am not neutral when it comes to VR and AR, having worked at VR pioneer Jaunt for a few years. I experienced the exact same experience in Jaunt's test lab as the Vanity Fair journalist, because good VR has an almost hallucinatory effect. But you remain a spectator in someone else's film.

And the core of the Internet's success is not information, transaction or entertainment. It is communication between people. The great breakthrough of social media was not caused by expensive content from movie studios or game developers, but by movies like Charlie Bit My Finger.

Despite all the success of social media like Facebook and Instagram, the messaging service Whatsapp is being used more intensively by users. And just when it seemed that the market for messaging apps was saturated, Telegram managed to attract as many as a quarter of a billion new users in 2023, bringing the total number of users to 700 million people. The demand for communication options between people seems inexhaustible.

So the big question for Apple becomes not how it can develop even flashier VR and AR applications, or how it gets Netflix to create apps for the Vision Pro; but whether it manages to develop interpersonal communication applications for the Apple Vision Pro that are as useful, funny and addictive as ever text messaging. As an enthusiast, I wish Apple would focus on that and, for example, permanently disband its entire automotive division. How many electric automakers does the world need?

Is TikTok the answer?

Especially when it comes to communication between people, TikTok has proven to be a phenomenon. When it seemed like the social media market had been completely nailed shut by Facebook, Twitter and Instagram, with Snapchat and Twitch as boutique stores, dances appeared on this originally Chinese app that were emulated worldwide. For dance requires no spoken language, only a sense of rhythm or a glaring lack of embarrassment.

Meanwhile, TikTok has become so big that Wired wrote an extensive profile on the company's Singaporean CEO, who had to answer to the US Congress for the second time last week, with a senator going out of his way to appear as racist and anti-Chinese as possible to his constituents. Incidentally, the Singaporean Internet responded within 24 hours with a hilarious video.

I'm curious what a TikTok app on the Vision Pro would look like and what you could do with it. Dance together, or watch movies together, so that using the Vision Pro at least becomes a shared experience?

Or is it Joe Rogan?

Once upon a time, the world's most popular podcast maker Joe Rogan hosted the TV show Fear Factor, a derivative of Now or Neverland. In that program, contestants from the Netherlands and Belgium had to complete tasks such as jumping out of a building while holding an egg that was not supposed to break, or eating worms while Hans Kraay Junior yelled at them "do it for your country, eat those worms for the Netherlands!

Joe Rogan, the American Hans Kraay Junior, signed a new contract with Spotify this week that will net him as much as a quarter of a billion dollars. Interestingly, it is not even an exclusive contract with Spotify, so Rogan will be seen and heard on multiple platforms.

Rogan's podcasts are recorded representations of the most basic form of communication since the dawn of mankind: two people talking to each other. Rogan's success lies in his curiosity.

He is actually interested in his guests and never tends to want to be clever at the expense of his guests. Maybe he's not that smart, which is always the criticism of him, but perhaps that's exactly what makes his podcasts accessible to a wide audience.

I would not be surprised if there are millions of people who, with an Apple Vision Pro on their heads, want the feeling of sitting at the table next to Joe Rogan and Elon Musk, or Quentin Tarantino or Lance Armstrong, as a third person. Not even to participate on equal footing, but to experience an interesting conversation up close. The mere fact that this kind of application is relatively easy to make is a reason to conclude that the Vision Pro is underrated.

Because it may quietly take five years and three versions of the Vision Pro before the device finds its killer apps combined with a good price, but then Apple will have a new successful form of personal computer on its hands alongside the Mac, iPhone, iPad and Apple Watch. Losing seventy billion in market cap the week the Apple Vision Pro hit the market? Investors should be ashamed of themselves.

Categories
AI crypto

Elon Musk and his exes. And Apple CEO Tim Cook lost AI top talent to Google, but strikes blow with savings accounts

This week, almost all tech news seemed to be about artificial intelligence. After all, major innovations in AI capture the imagination and are recognizable to all, whereas a breakthrough in biotechnology, for example, is often literally visible only through a microscope to a limited group of experts.

Why do you need $300 million when you just raised $10 billion?

When $300 million dollars is paid by top investors for just over one (1) percent of OpenAI, the company that is the creator of ChatGPT, it deserves extensive attention. Especially considering that Microsoft invested $10 billion (!) in OpenAI less than three months ago, having already put a billion into the company in 2019. That 11 billion surely hasn't run out yet, so the question arises as to why OpenAI held this additional round of investment.

The main reason OpenAI wants to have a strong relationship with some of the biggest tech investors in the world is the burgeoning battle for the AI market. The time is approaching when really big money is needed, think billions rather than millions, for a company to join the battle of giants such as Google, Apple, Microsoft and Amazon who are all competing in this market. After all, AI is too important for all players to ignore. In fact, for Google, the success of OpenAI is life-threatening. With shareholders behind it like Tiger Global, Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Thrive, K2 Global and Founders Fund (from Peter Thiel, the legendary investor in Facebook and Palantir, among others), OpenAI can now operate independently of partner Microsoft. With an estimated market value of $27 billion to $29 billion, OpenAI is already worth more right now than, to name a crossroad, companies like Spotify and vaccine maker BioNTech, companies that have also successfully capitalized on major developments.

This 'photo' was generated entirely with Midjourney and is eerily real

CEOs Tim Cook and Sundar Pichai fight over AI talent

Meanwhile, in the race for the best AI technology, Apple with Siri and Amazon with Alexa are far behind OpenAI. The Information reported this week that three of Apple's top programmers therefore made the move to Google, despite attempts by Apple CEO Tim Cook to retain them. The personal offer from Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai, who is committed to catching up with OpenAI, was apparently irresistible. Would any CEO of a European publicly traded company ever have made a personal effort to attract programmers, or to retain them, as Cook and Pichai are doing? I suspect the European gentry, for they are almost all men, feel too big for that.

How difficult it is to make a good AI application proved Snapchat, which received a 1 for the "My AI" feature from users, urging them to remove it from the app. It was not Snap's week, which saw revenue drop after which the stock slumped 17%. Dropbox announced it was laying off 16% of its staff while investing heavily in attracting new AI developers. This indicates that it is difficult, if not impossible, to retrain programmers to become AI developers.

Elon Musk, his X's and his ex

The wait is on for Elon Musk to get involved in the AI war with a company, but he seems too busy trying to ruin Twitter. He does constantly criticize OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman since he sold his stake in OpenAI to Microsoft. It is remarkable, to say the least, that Musk, in an open letter, called for a sort of six-month moratorium in AI development, but in the meantime continues to work on funding his own AI startup, which he alternately calls TruthGPT (as with now unemployed chief Tucker Carlson) or X-AI. That X should normally be in there from Musk; he previously started X.com and, of course, SpaceX. It's lucky it's Tesla and not Texla. His latest son is named X Æ A-Xii (call sign: Bert). And the Æ is in the poor kid's name because it is the elven spelling of the term AI. Musk's baby mama, Canadian artist Grimes, stood out this week by giving permission to use her voice in AI-generated music: "I'll split 50% royalties on any successful AI generated song that uses my voice. Same deal as I would with any artist i collab with. Feel free to use my voice without penalty.' This is especially notable because there is concern that AI will make the entire profession of voice actors obsolete. It will be interesting to follow what the implications will be for singers.

The Apple Card with rounded corners, Steve Jobs wouldn't have wanted it any other way

Finally: Apple is going to make mincemeat of the banks and does it with ... Goldman Sachs?

It had been expected for years and last week it was here: Apple made its entrance into the banking world. Remarkable remains the choice of Goldman Sachs as a partner, because Apple hardly uses the Goldman brand but uses the prestigious bank mainly for the banking license and as a colorless and odorless handler of savings transactions, as a kind of white label. While Apple rarely, if ever, buys market share based on price, when it comes to savings accounts the high interest rate actually stands out: 4.15%, as much as 10 times higher than the US national average. 

What is typical of Apple, however, is its great ease of use. The first step is to apply for an Apple Card, a credit card, which unfortunately is only available in the US for now. All spending via that card will default to 1% to 3% of the purchase amount in the form of what Apple has called "Daily Cash," a balance that is calculated and credited daily. Those who then open a savings account from the Apple Wallet and link it to the Apple Card, an action of no more than a few clicks, will see Daily Cash credited to the savings account daily and automatically receive the high interest rate of 4.15%. The savings account is free, there is no minimum deposit and there are no penalties if balances are withdrawn from the savings account. It is also possible to transfer funds from other banks to the Apple-Goldman savings account.

And precisely the latter is a nightmare for traditional banks. Because while there are other, lesser-known banks, giving even higher savings rates, they are not trusted brands like Apple. The combination of Apple Card with Apple Pay and the Apple Wallet is so seamless and simple that it will be difficult for banks to compete. It seems plausible that European banks will launch a hefty lobby in Brussels, combined with legal action, to make it difficult for Apple to enter the European market in the same way it does in the US.

Event: Consensus 2023

Nearly fifteen thousand people attended the leading crypto event Consensus in Austin, Texas last week, and that doesn't include the types who are too stingy to buy a conference ticket because they think they already know everything and want to tell you that the best networking happens in the pub. The sounds from Austin were universally positive, especially about the quality of the projects that survived the crypto winter. I found the most notable contribution to Consensus, viewed from a distance because I wasn't there myself, to be the interview with journalist Brady Dale, whose book about Sam Bankman-Fried of FTX will soon be published. Dale emphatically points to decentralized finance, DeFi, as the main solution against fraud and mismanagement, precisely where there is no central party like a stock exchange like FTX. I also found it striking that Dale specifically mentions memecoin Dogecoin as a relevant crypto alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum:

'To me, Dogecoin is the chain that said, A story, a character, a concept can have a value, and if a community believes in that character and works together in a distributed way to make the idea bigger, the value of the concept will grow and so will its currency. Dogecoin has really made that clear. It's not just about DOGE, it's about that whole idea of collaboration around a concept, and that's why I'm betting Dogecoin will be the comeback kid of blockchains, again and again, in the near future.

- Brady Dale

Good links

  • Check out this link to some particularly practical prompts to use yourself at ChatGPT.
  • Startup funding is under severe pressure. These four charts show that, and in Miami, investment in startups actually fell more than 90%. Partly a result of the focus in that region on crypto startups, which were struggling.
  • In the Netherlands, more and more investors are asking startup founders not to pay themselves a salary. Here are five reasons why they should.
  • Unknown identifies nearly 1,000 Bitcoin wallets belonging to Russian secret services. Very clever.
  • The U.S. government is about to take over First Republic Bank. I wrote earlier this month about what kind of bank First Republic is. Or was?

Spotlight 9: Meta and Microsoft the big winners of the week

Meta and Microsoft as outliers after good quarterly results

Reader Raoul Kuiper rightly asked me why I did include Bitcoin in this portfolio when I don't own it myself because of its energy consumption and associated carbon emissions. By way of explanation, I created this fictitious Spotlight 9 portfolio to track sentiment in the tech world on a weekly basis. I think when, as happened last week, virtually all major tech companies plus the Dow Jones and S&P 500 are all in the minus, that is relevant to the entire world of technology and innovation. Bitcoin and Ethereum I included because those are the most widely held assets of the hundreds of millions of people investing in crypto worldwide. Of the Spotlight 9, I personally find Microsoft, Apple and Ethereum interesting. The projects and companies I find otherwise fascinating, such as Polygon (MATIC), are usually too small to have an impact on stock market sentiment and the economy and therefore not included in the Spotlight 9.

Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft and Meta published good quarterly earnings this week, and Microsoft and Meta in particular benefited. Microsoft is expected to benefit greatly from the integration of AI, based in part on technology from OpenAI, into various products and services. Zuckerberg explained to investors that Meta uses a lot of AI to better target their TikTok competitor Instagram Reels, and that struck a chord: Meta shares rose nearly 13% in the last 5 days.

It was, in short, in every way the week of AI.